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Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts

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Author Info

  • Cees Diks

    ()
    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Valentyn Panchenko

    ()
    (School of Economics, University of New South Wales)

  • Dick van Dijk

    ()
    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

We introduce a statistical test for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts, based on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC). The test is valid under general conditions: in particular it allows for parameter estimation uncertainty and for the copulas to be nested or nonnested. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the proposed test has satisfactory size and power properties in finite samples. Applying the test to daily exchange rate returns of several major currencies against the US dollar we find that the Student’s t copula is favored over Gaussian, Gumbel and Clayton copulas. This suggests that these exchange rate returns are characterized by symmetric tail dependence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics, The University of New South Wales in its series Discussion Papers with number 2008-23.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2008-23

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Keywords: Copula-based density forecast; semiparametric statistics; out-of-sample forecast evaluation; Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion; empirical copula;

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  1. repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
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  4. James Mitchell & Stephen G. Hall, 2005. "Evaluating, Comparing and Combining Density Forecasts Using the KLIC with an Application to the Bank of England and NIESR 'Fan' Charts of Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 995-1033, December.
  5. Sancetta, Alessio & Satchell, Stephen, 2004. "The Bernstein Copula And Its Applications To Modeling And Approximations Of Multivariate Distributions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 535-562, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gregor Weiß, 2013. "Copula-GARCH versus dynamic conditional correlation: an empirical study on VaR and ES forecasting accuracy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 179-202, August.
  2. Krenar AVDULAJ & Jozef BARUNIK, 2013. "Can We Still Benefit from International Diversification? The Case of the Czech and German Stock Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(5), pages 425-442, November.
  3. Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer & Stefan Trück, 2011. "The Dependence Structure between Carbon Emission Allowances and Financial Markets - A Copula Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3418, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Hayette Gatfaoui, 2010. "Investigating the dependence structure between credit default swap spreads and the U.S. financial market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 511-535, October.
  5. Diaa Noureldin & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2011. "Multivariate High-Frequency-Based Volatility (HEAVY) Models," Economics Series Working Papers 533, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Balaev, Alexey, 2014. "The copula based on multivariate t-distribution with vector of degrees of freedom," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 90-110.
  7. Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2011. "Are Copula-GoF-tests of any practical use? Empirical evidence for stocks, commodities and FX futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 173-188, May.
  8. Jean-David Fermanian, 2012. "An overview of the goodness-of-fit test problem for copulas," Papers 1211.4416, arXiv.org.

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