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Shrinking money and monetary business cycles

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Author Info

  • Harold L. Cole
  • Lee E. Ohanian

Abstract

In the postwar period velocity has risen so sharply in the U.S. that the ratio of money to nominal output has fallen by a factor of three. We analyze the implications of shrinking money for the real effects of a monetary shock in two classes of equilibrium monetary business cycle models: limited participation (liquidity) models and predetermined (sticky) price models. We show that the liquidity model predicts that a rise in velocity leads to a substantial reduction in the real effects of a monetary shock. In sharp contrast, we show that the real effects of a monetary shock in the sticky price model are largely invariant to changes in velocity. We provide evidence that suggests that the real effects of monetary shocks have fallen over the postwar period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Working Papers with number 579.

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Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:579

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Keywords: Business cycles;

References

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  1. Cooley, T.F. & Cho, J.O., 1991. "The Business Cycle with Nominal Contracts," Papers 90-07, Rochester, Business - General.
  2. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  3. Ireland, Peter N, 1995. "Endogenous Financial Innovation and the Demand for Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 107-23, February.
  4. Lee E. Ohanian & Alan C. Stockman & Lutz Killian, 1994. "The effects of real and monetary shocks in a business cycle model with some sticky prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1209-1240.
  5. Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1988. "The Inflation Tax In A Real Business Cycle Model," Papers 88-05, Rochester, Business - General.
  6. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February.
  7. Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1984. "Money and Interest in Cash-In-Advance Economy," Discussion Papers 628, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  8. Robert J. Barro, 1979. "A Capital Market In an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model," NBER Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-38, May.
  10. Michael Dotsey, 1984. "An investigation of cash management practices and their effects on the demand for money," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 3-12.
  11. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  12. King, Robert G., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 169-172, January.
  13. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
  14. Schlagenhauf, Don E. & Wrase, Jeffrey M., 1995. "Liquidity and real activity in a simple open economy model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 431-461, June.
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  18. Eden, Benjamin, 1994. "The Adjustment of Prices to Monetary Shocks When Trade Is Uncertain and Sequential," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 493-509, June.
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  21. repec:fip:fedlpr:y:1995:i:may:p:33-54 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Richard D. Porter & Ruth A. Judson, 1996. "The location of U.S. currency: how much is abroad?," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 883-903.
  23. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
  24. Barnett, William A & Offenbacher, Edward K & Spindt, Paul A, 1984. "The New Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1049-85, December.
  25. Daniel L. Thornton & Piyu Yue, 1992. "An extended series of divisia monetary aggregates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 35-52.
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  27. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "A Monetary Equilibrium Model with Transactions Costs," NBER Working Papers 0978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Bental, Benjamin & Eden, Bemjamin, 1996. "Money and inventories in an economy with uncertain and sequential trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 445-459, June.
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  30. Adrian R. Pagan & John C. Robertson, 1995. "Resolving the liquidity effect," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 33-54.
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Cited by:
  1. Hromcova, Jana, 1998. "A note on income velocity of money in a cash-in-advance economy with capital," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 91-96, July.
  2. Cooley, Thomas F. & Hansen, Gary D., 1998. "The role of monetary shocks in equilibrium business cycle theory: Three examples," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 605-617, May.

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