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Sectoral dynamics and business cycles

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  • Tase, Manjola

Abstract

I construct an index of sectoral dynamics to characterize changes in the sectoral composition of economic activity. There is evidence of asymmetry in different phases of business cycles with recessions being associated with larger changes in sectoral composition than expansions. Since the 1990s, while sectoral changes appear to be smaller and spread across more sectors, the correlation between sectoral dynamics and GDP growth is higher. I find that recession duration in the impulse response functions from a VAR of sectoral dynamics and GDP growth rate is similar to recession duration observed in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Tase, Manjola, 2019. "Sectoral dynamics and business cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 60-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:175:y:2019:i:c:p:60-63
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.12.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    2. Erica L. Groshen & Simon M. Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
    3. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jakub Mućk & Michał Rubaszek & Karol Szafranek, 2021. "A note on the heterogenous economic effects of COVID-19 on GDP via the sectoral structure," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(3), pages 253-266.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural changes; Business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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