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Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence, and Labour Market Dynamics in Germany

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Author Info
Bachmann, Ronald
Burda, Michael C

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Abstract

The secular rise of European unemployment since the 1960s is hard to explain without reference to structural change. This is especially true in Germany, where industrial employment has declined by more than 30% and service sector employment has more than doubled over the past three decades. Using individual transition data on West German workers, we document a marked increase in structural change and turbulence, in particular since 1990. Net employment changes resulted partly from an increase in gross flows, but also from an increase in the net transition "yield" at any given gross worker turnover. In growing sectors, net structural change was driven by accessions from nonparticipation rather than unemployment; contracting sectors reduced their net employment primarily via lower accessions from nonparticipation. While gross turnover is cyclically sensitive and strongly procyclical, net reallocation is countercyclical, meaning that recessions are associated with increased intensity of sectoral reallocation. Beyond this cyclical component, German reunification and Eastern enlargement appear to have contributed significantly to this accelerated pace of structural change.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6226.

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Date of creation: Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6226

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Keywords: gross worker flows sectoral and occupational mobility turbulence

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Volodymyr Perederiy, 2007. "Kombinierte Liquiditäts- und Solvenzkennzahlen und ein darauf basierendes Insolvenzprognosemodell für deutsche GmbHs," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-060, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bachmann, Ronald & Burda, Michael C., 2008. "Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence, and Labor Market Dynamics in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 3324, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Lydia Mechtenberg, 2007. "Ideology Without Ideologists," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-021, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ronald Bachmann & Sebastian Braun, 2008. "The Impact of International Outsourcing on Labour Market Dynamics in Germany," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael C. Burda, 2007. "What kind of shock was it? Regional Integration and Structural Change in Germany after Unification," Kiel Working Papers 1306, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kai Detlefsen & Wolfgang Härdle & Rouslan Moro, 2007. "Empirical Pricing Kernels and Investor Preferences," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-017, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sebastian Braun & Juliane Scheffel, 2007. "Does International Outsourcing Depress Union Wages?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-033, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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