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Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence, and Labor Market Dynamics in Germany

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  • Ronald Bachmann

    ()

  • Michael C. Burda

    ()

Abstract

The secular rise of European unemployment since the 1960s is hard to explain without reference to structural change. This is especially true in Germany, where industrial employment has declined by more than 30% and service sector employment has more than doubled over the past three decades. Using individual transition data onWest German workers, we document a marked increase in structural change and turbulence, in particular since 1990. Net employment changes resulted partly from an increase in gross flows, but also from an increase in the net transition “yield” at any given gross worker turnover. In growing sectors, net structural change was driven by accessions from nonparticipation rather than unemployment; contracting sectors reduced their net employment primarily via lower accessions from nonparticipation. While gross turnover is cyclically sensitive and strongly procyclical, net reallocation is countercyclical, meaning that recessions are associated with increased intensity of sectoral reallocation. Beyond this cyclical component, German reunification and Eastern enlargement appear to have contributed significantly to this accelerated pace of structural change.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0005.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0005

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Keywords: Gross worker flows; sectoral and occupational mobility; turbulence;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ronald Bachmann & Michael C. Burda, 2007. "Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence, and Labor Market Dynamics in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 0005, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Michael C. Burda, 2007. "What kind of shock was it? Regional Integration and Structural Change in Germany after Unification," Kiel Working Papers 1306, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Walter Krämer, 2011. "The Cult of Statistical Significance – What Economists Should and Should Not Do to Make their Data Talk," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 131(3), pages 455-468.
  4. Carlos Usabiaga & Fernando Núñez & Pablo Álvarez de Toledo, 2013. "Segmentación del mercado de trabajo, clusters, movilidad y duración de desempleo con datos individuales," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2013/02, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  5. Ronald Bachmann & Sebastian Braun, 2008. "The Impact of International Outsourcing on Labour Market Dynamics in Germany," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  6. Stephan Humpert, 2012. "Age and Gender Differences in Job Opportunities," Working Paper Series in Economics 235, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
  7. Gina Cristina Dimian & Bogdan Ileanu & Josef Jablonský & Jan Fábry, 2013. "Analysis of European Labour Market in the Crisis Context," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(1), pages 50-71.
  8. Álvarez de Toledo, Pablo & Núñez, Fernando & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2014. "An empirical approach on labour segmentation. Applications with individual duration data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 252-267.
  9. Sepp, Jüri, 2009. "Industriestruktur als Ursache für Produktivitätsunterschiede in Europa: Das Beispiel Estland," Discussion Papers 1/09, Europa-Kolleg Hamburg, Institute for European Integration.
  10. Brian Silverstone & Will Bell, 2011. "Gross Labour Market Flows in New Zealand: Some Questions and Answers," Working Papers in Economics 11/15, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  11. Álvarez de Toledo, Pablo & Núñez, Fernando & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2013. "Labour Market Segmentation, Clusters, Mobility and Unemployment Duration with Individual Microdata," MPRA Paper 46003, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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