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The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the UK

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  • Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos
  • Hobijn, Bart
  • She, Powen
  • Visschers, Ludo

Abstract

Using quarterly data for the U.K. from 1993 through 2012, we document that the extent of worker reallocation across occupations or industries (a career change, in the parlance of this paper) is high and procyclical. This holds true after controlling for workers' previous labour market status and for changes in the composition of who gets hired over the business cycle. Our evidence suggests that a large part of this reallocation reflect excess churning in the labour market. We also find that the majority of career changes come with wage increases. During the economic expansion wage increases were typically larger for those who change careers than for those who do not. During the recession this is not true for career changers who were hired from unemployment. Our evidence suggests that understanding career changes over the business cycle is important for explaining labour market ows and the cyclicality of wage growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Hobijn, Bart & She, Powen & Visschers, Ludo, 2015. "The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the UK," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-52, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:640
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    8. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Clymo, Alex & Comunello, Camila & Jäckle, Annette & Visschers, Ludo & Zentler-Munro, David, 2023. "Search and reallocation in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the UK," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Carlos Carrillo-Tudela & Bart Hobijn & Patryk Perkowski & Ludo Visschers, 2015. "Majority of hires never report looking for a job," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Grjebine, Thomas & Szczerbowicz, Urszula & Tripier, Fabien, 2018. "Corporate debt structure and economic recoveries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 77-100.
    11. Varga, Júlia & Csillag, Márton, 2023. "A foglalkozási mobilitás változása Magyarországon két évtized adatai alapján [Changes in occupational mobility in Hungary over two decades]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1338-1360.
    12. Kenneth Burdett & Carlos Carrillo-Tudela & Melvyn Coles, 2020. "The Cost of Job Loss," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(4), pages 1757-1798.
    13. Peng, Congmin & She, Po-Wen, 2020. "Are women less likely to be managers in the UK labour market?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 317-324.
    14. Carlos Carrillo-Tudela & Eric Smith, 2017. "Search Capital," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 191-211, January.
    15. Bauer, Anja & Lochner, Benjamin, 2020. "History dependence in wages and cyclical selection: Evidence from Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Forsythe, Eliza & Kahn, Lisa B. & Lange, Fabian & Wiczer, David, 2022. "Where have all the workers gone? Recalls, retirements, and reallocation in the COVID recovery," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Basso, Gaetano & Depalo, Domenico & Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2023. "Worker flows and reallocation during the recovery," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    18. Giovanni Razzu & Carl Singleton, 2018. "Segregation and Gender Gaps in the United Kingdom's Great Recession and Recovery," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 31-55, October.
    19. Bauer, Anja, 2015. "Reallocation patterns across occupations," IAB-Discussion Paper 201526, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    20. Albertini, Julien & Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, François & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2017. "A Tale of Two Countries: A Story of the French and US Polarization," IZA Discussion Papers 11013, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Etheridge, Ben & Cavaglia, Chiara, 2017. "Job polarization, task prices and the distribution of task returns," ISER Working Paper Series 2017-09, Institute for Social and Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour market turnover; occupational and industry mobility; wage growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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