Estimating the Revealed Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy
AbstractThis paper proposes a new method of estimating the Taylor rule with a time-varying implicit inflation target and a time-varying natural rate of interest. The inflation target and the natural rate are modelled as random walks and are estimated using maximum likelihood and the Kalman filter. I apply this method to U.S. monetary policy over the last 25 years to understand how the Federal Reserveâ€™s target has varied during this broadly successful period. Stability tests indicate significant time variation in the implicit target. In the early 1980s, during the Volcker disinflation, the inflation target is near 3%. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the target is close to actual inflation of 3-4% and only declines once the 1990-91 recession reduces inflation to 1-2%, corroborating historical evidence of an â€œopportunistic approach to disinflation.â€ Finally, over 2001-2004, the target rises to 2-3%, behaviour that can be interpreted as a response the risks of hitting the zero bound on nominal interest rates
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 177.
Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Taylor rule; time-varying parameters; Kalman filter;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-11-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2005-11-19 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2005-11-19 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2005-11-19 (Monetary Economics)
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