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Estimating the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target: A state space approach

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  • Leigh, Daniel
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    Abstract

    Existing estimates of the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target typically rely on the assumption that it is constant for the duration of the period of analysis. This paper relaxes this assumption and estimates the implicit inflation target using a time-varying parameter model and the Kalman filter. In applying this method to the Volcker-Greenspan period, it finds significant time variation in the implicit target that is consistent with hypotheses about 'opportunistic disinflation' and the recent 'deflation scare'.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V85-4PNFV4H-1/1/65a5dec0097d4d67208a743c621ebbda
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 2013-2030

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:6:p:2013-2030

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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    Cited by:
    1. Klose, Jens, 2011. "Asymmetric Taylor reaction functions of the ECB: An approach depending on the state of the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 149-163, August.
    2. Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber & H.O. Stekler & Elizabeth Reid, 2008. "Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation," Working Papers 2008-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2011.
    3. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Disinflation in a DSGE Perspective: Sacrifice Ratio or Welfare Gain Ratio?," Kiel Working Papers 1499, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    4. Frenkel, Michael & Lis, Eliza M. & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "Has the economic crisis of 2007-2009 changed the expectation formation process in the Euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1808-1814, July.
    5. Zervou, Anastasia S., 2013. "Financial market segmentation, stock market volatility and the role of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 256-272.
    6. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.

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