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Testing the Opportunistic Approach to Monetary Policy

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Author Info

  • Christopher Martin

    (Brunel University)

  • Costas Milas

    () (Keele University, Centre for Economic Research and School of Economic and Management Studies)

Abstract

The Opportunistic Approach to Monetary Policy is an influential but untested model of optimal monetary policy. We provide the first tests of the model, using US data from 1983Q1-2004Q1. Our results support the Opportunistic Approach. We find that policymakers respond to the gap between inflation and an intermediate target that reflects the recent history of inflation. We find that there is no response of interest rates to inflation when inflation is within 1intermediate target.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Research, Keele University in its series Keele Economics Research Papers with number KERP 2007/02.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kee:kerpuk:2007/02

Note: We are also grateful to Kalvinder Shields for making the real-time output data used in the Garratt, Lee, Mise and Shields (2005) working paper available to us.
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Postal: Centre for Economic Research, Research Institute for Public Policy and Management, Keele University, Staffordshire ST5 5BG - United Kingdom
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Keywords: Monetary policy; zone of discretion; intermediate inflation target.;

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References

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  1. Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2005. "Opportunistic Monetary Policy: an Alternative Rationalization," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
  5. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Aksoy, Yunus & Orphanides, Athanasios & Small, David & Wieland, Volker & Wilcox, David, 2003. "A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4073, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Dahl, Christian M. & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 2003. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in regression models based on the theory of random fields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 141-164, May.
  9. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  10. Christina Gerberding & Franz Seitz & Andreas Worms, 2005. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 60, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Hamilton, James D, 2001. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 537-73, May.
  13. Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields & Tony Garratt, 2005. "Real time Representations of the Output Gap," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 26, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  14. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring.
  15. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2005. "The relevance of real-time data in estimating reaction functions for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 293-307, December.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:lan:wpaper:2256 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Ivan Paya & R Naraidoo, 2010. "Forecasting Monetary Policy Rules in South Africa," Working Papers 2364, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  3. repec:lan:wpaper:2344 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. George Christodoulakis & David Peel, 2009. "The Central Bank Inflation Bias in the Presence of Asymmetric Preferences and Non-Normal Shocks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1608-1620.

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