Investigating the Cyclical Properties of World Trade
AbstractThe world economy in the last two decades is clearly marked by the integration of emerging countries in the international division of labor. To better understand the “globalization” effect, it is helpful to analyze the pattern and structure of world trade volume in the past, in order to draw conclusions for future development. An unobserved components model is used for decomposing world trade volume into trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular components. The analyses show that the process of the world trade volume is driven by the well-known fluctuations in form of the “Kitchin” and “Juglar Cycle”. Furthermore, there is one more cycle with a period between 4 and 5 years which improves the estimation results significantly. The information of the cyclical behavior of the time series is used for projections.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Paper No. 30.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
World trade; economic integration; unobserved components model; forecasting.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
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- Gebhard Flaig, 2001. "Trend and Cycles in U.S. Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 607, CESifo Group Munich.
- Gebhard Flaig, 2002. "Unoberserved Components Models for Quarterly German GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 681, CESifo Group Munich.
- Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 9609, Banco de Espa�a.
- Gebhard Flaig*, 2005. "Time Series Properties of the German Production Index," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 89(4), pages 419-434, November.
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