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Underlying Inflation in Australia: Are the Existing Measures Satisfactory?

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Author Info
ROBERT DIXON
G.C. LIM

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Abstract

A number of measures of the underlying rate of inflation are reported for Australia. We formulate criteria that an acceptable underlying rate must satisfy and then test to see whether any of the current measures satisfy these criteria. We find that for the period since inflation targeting began, none of the underlying series satisfy all criteria. We then examine the results of an 'Unobserved Components' decomposition and show that it not only provides useful information on underlying inflation in Australia, but also provides support for the decision, in 1998, of the Reserve Bank of Australia to switch the target from an underlying series to the headline rate itself. Copyright © 2004 Economic Society of Australia..

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Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 80 (2004)
Issue (Month): 251 (December)
Pages: 373-386
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:80:y:2004:i:251:p:373-386

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
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  4. Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP so Different?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0692, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jonathan Kearns, 1998. "The Distribution and Measurement of Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9810, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marques, Carlos Robalo & Neves, Pedro Duarte & da Silva, Afonso Goncalves, 2002. "Why should Central Banks avoid the use of the underlying inflation indicator?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 17-23, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Guy Debelle, 1997. "Inflation Targeting in Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/35, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Freeman, Donald G., 1998. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 143-147, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jamie Armour, 2006. "An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures," Working Papers 06-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lei Lei Song, 2003. "The Role of the Unit of Analysis in Tax Policy Reform Evaluations," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n29, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2006. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 968, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ivan Roberts, 2005. "Underlying Inflation: Concepts, Measurement and Performance," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-05, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lei Lei Song, 2005. "Do underlying measures of inflation outperform headline rates? Evidence from Australian data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 339-345, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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