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Oil Shocks And Optimal Monetary Policy

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  • Montoro, Carlos

Abstract

This paper investigates how monetary policy should react to oil shocks in a microfounded model with staggered price-setting and oil as a non-produced input in the production function. We extend Benigno and Woodford (2005) to obtain a second order approximation to the expected utility of the representative household when the steady state is distorted and the economy is hit by oil price shocks. The main result is that oil price shocks generate a trade-off between inflation and output stabilisation when oil has low substitutability in production. Therefore, it becomes optimal to the monetary authority to stabilise partially the effects of oil shocks on inflation and some inflation is desirable. We also find, in contrast to Benigno and Woodford (2005), that this trade-off remains even when we eliminate the effects of monopolistic distortions from the steady state. Our results also shed light on how technological improvements which reduces the dependence on oil, also reduce the impact of oil shocks on the economy. This can explain why oil shocks have lower impact on inflation in the 2000s in contrast to the 1970s. Since oil has become easier to substitute with other renewable resources, the impact of oil shocks has been dampened.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2012)
Issue (Month): 02 (April)
Pages: 240-277

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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:16:y:2012:i:02:p:240-277_00

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  4. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Bianca De Paoli, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0639, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
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  8. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  14. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2005. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 350, Central Bank of Chile.
  15. Jean-Marc Natal, 2010. "Monerary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 2010-15, Swiss National Bank.
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  17. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  18. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Inflation premium and oil price volatility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19750, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  19. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  20. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-91, April.
  21. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 49007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Marc Pourroy & Benjamin Carton & Dramane Coulibaly, 2012. "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00768906, HAL.
  3. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 305-318.
  4. Jean-Marc Natal, 2010. "Monerary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 2010-15, Swiss National Bank.
  5. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2009. "What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?," IMF Working Papers 09/101, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2005. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," Macroeconomics 0512004, EconWPA, revised 31 Dec 2005.
  7. T.V.S.Ramamohan Rao, 2011. "Contemporary Relevance and Ongoing Controversies Related to the CES Production Function," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 36-57, July.
  8. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos & Tuesta, Vicente., 2010. "Inflation, Oil Price Volatility and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2010-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  9. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp166, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.

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