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Oil Shocks And Optimal Monetary Policy

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  • Montoro, Carlos

Abstract

This paper investigates how monetary policy should react to oil shocks in a microfounded model with staggered price-setting and oil as a non-produced input in the production function. We extend Benigno and Woodford (2005) to obtain a second order approximation to the expected utility of the representative household when the steady state is distorted and the economy is hit by oil price shocks. The main result is that oil price shocks generate a trade-off between inflation and output stabilisation when oil has low substitutability in production. Therefore, it becomes optimal to the monetary authority to stabilise partially the effects of oil shocks on inflation and some inflation is desirable. We also find, in contrast to Benigno and Woodford (2005), that this trade-off remains even when we eliminate the effects of monopolistic distortions from the steady state. Our results also shed light on how technological improvements which reduces the dependence on oil, also reduce the impact of oil shocks on the economy. This can explain why oil shocks have lower impact on inflation in the 2000s in contrast to the 1970s. Since oil has become easier to substitute with other renewable resources, the impact of oil shocks has been dampened.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2012)
Issue (Month): 02 (April)
Pages: 240-277

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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:16:y:2012:i:02:p:240-277_00

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References

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  1. Michael Woodford & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2004. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare: The Case of a Distorted Steady State," 2004 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal stabilization policy when wages and prices are sticky: The case of a distorted steady state," Discussion Papers 0405-03, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  4. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  7. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," CEP Discussion Papers dp0782, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  8. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & N. Gregory Mankiw & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Panel discussion: understanding price determination: where are we now? where should we be going?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  10. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-91, April.
  11. De Paoli, Bianca, 2009. "Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 11-22, February.
  12. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 5634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Blanchard, Olivier J & Galí, Jordi, 2005. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5375, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  16. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
  17. Drora Karotkin, 1996. "Justification of the simple majority and chairman rules," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 479-486.
  18. Tack Yun, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Relative Price Distortions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 89-109, March.
  19. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  20. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I & Rebelo, Sergio T, 2002. "Production, Growth and Business Cycles: Technical Appendix," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 87-116, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Linear-Quadratic Approximation of Optimal Policy Problems," Discussion Papers 0809-01, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  2. T.V.S.Ramamohan Rao, 2011. "Contemporary Relevance and Ongoing Controversies Related to the CES Production Function," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 36-57, July.
  3. Marc Pourroy & Benjamin Carton & Dramane Coulibaly, 2012. "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies," Working Papers 2012-33, CEPII research center.
  4. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," CEP Discussion Papers dp0782, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Jean-Marc Natal, 2009. "Monetary policy response to oil price shocks," Working Paper Series 2009-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2009. "What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?," IMF Working Papers 09/101, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos & Tuesta, Vicente., 2010. "Inflation, Oil Price Volatility and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2010-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

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