IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mcb/jmoncb/v44y2012i1p53-101.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • JEAN-MARC NATAL

Abstract

How should monetary authorities react to an oil price shock? This paper shows that in a noncompetitive economy, policies that perfectly stabilize prices entail large welfare costs, hence explaining the reluctance of policymakers to enforce them. The policy trade‐off is nontrivial because oil (energy) is an input to both production and consumption. As welfare‐maximizing policies are hard to implement and communicate, I derive a simple interest rate rule that depends only on observables but mimics the optimal plan in all dimensions. The optimal rule is hard on core inflation but accommodates oil price changes.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:44:y:2012:i:1:p:53-101
    DOI: j.1538-4616.2011.00469.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2011.00469.x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/j.1538-4616.2011.00469.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December.
    2. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
    3. Montoro, Carlos, 2012. "Oil Shocks And Optimal Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 240-277, April.
    4. Plante, Michael, 2014. "How should monetary policy respond to changes in the relative price of oil? Considering supply and demand shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-19.
    5. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-286, April.
    6. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Carl Walsh, 2003. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 265-278, March.
    8. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2007. "Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 44-59, November.
    9. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    10. Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 113-134.
    11. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy with distinct core and headline inflation rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 18-33, October.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    13. Bennett McCallum, 1999. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November.
    14. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    15. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    16. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
    17. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2005. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 350, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 706-727, April.
    19. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Linear-Quadratic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 271-364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    21. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Dennis, Richard, 2004. "Solving for optimal simple rules in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1635-1660, June.
    23. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
    24. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    25. Lutz Kilian & Logan T. Lewis, 2011. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1047-1072, September.
    26. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1983. "Dynamic Factor Demands and the Effects of Energy Price Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 1066-1079, December.
    27. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    28. Anna Kormilitsina, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 199-223, January.
    29. Patrick J. Kehoe & Andrew Atkeson, 1999. "Models of Energy Use: Putty-Putty versus Putty-Clay," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1028-1043, September.
    30. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    31. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Sep), pages 597-612.
    33. Athanasios Orphanides, 2000. "Activist stabilization policy and inflation: the Taylor rule in the 1970s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    35. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2005. "Oil prices, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jul.
    36. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Sep), pages 597-612.
    37. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    38. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-291, April.
    39. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    40. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    41. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Inflation-output gap trade-off with a dominant oil supplier," Working Papers 0723, Banco de España.
    42. David Lopez-Salido & Andrew T. Levin, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Endogenous Capital Accumulation," 2004 Meeting Papers 826, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    43. Fiorella de Fiore & Giovenni Lombardo & Viktors Stebunovs, 2006. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy Rules and Welfare," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 402, Society for Computational Economics.
    44. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 231-272, April.
    45. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2006. "Oil Prices, Monetary Policy, and Counterfactual Experiments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1945-1958, October.
    46. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    47. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2001. "The Case for Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 8423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. John C. Williams, 2003. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-12.
    49. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2005. "Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, January.
    50. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2007. "Taylor rules with headline inflation: a bad idea," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    51. Plante, Michael, 2014. "How should monetary policy respond to changes in the relative price of oil? Considering supply and demand shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-19.
    52. Herrera, Ana María & Pesavento, Elena, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The “Great Moderation”," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 107-137, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arnoud Stevens, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy response to endogenous oil price fluctuations," Working Paper Research 277, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Delpachitra, Sarath & Hou, Keqiang & Cottrell, Simon, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks in the Canadian economy: A structural investigation on an oil-exporting economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Munechika Katayama, 2013. "Declining Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 977-1016, September.
    6. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos & Tuesta, Vicente, 2020. "Inflation, oil price volatility and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Montoro, Carlos, 2012. "Oil Shocks And Optimal Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 240-277, April.
    8. Anna Kormilitsina, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 199-223, January.
    9. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2012. "Oil And The Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Structural Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1059-1083, October.
    10. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    11. Lutz Kilian & Logan T. Lewis, 2011. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1047-1072, September.
    12. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2010. "Monetary Policy Trade‐Offs with a Dominant Oil Producer," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 1-32, February.
    13. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 470-504, December.
    14. Kilian, Lutz, 2010. "Oil price volatility: Origins and effects," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-02, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    15. Romain Duval & Lukas Vogel, 2012. "How Do Nominal and Real Rigidities Interact? A Tale of the Second Best," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1455-1474, October.
    16. Lorusso, Marco & Pieroni, Luca, 2018. "Causes and consequences of oil price shocks on the UK economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 223-236.
    17. Gubler, Matthias & Hertweck, Matthias S., 2013. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycle: Structural evidence for the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 324-352.
    18. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2009. "“What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?”," IMF Working Papers 2009/101, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Archanskaïa, Elizaveta & Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2012. "The nature of oil shocks and the global economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 509-520.
    20. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:44:y:2012:i:1:p:53-101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.