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Are long-run output growth rates falling?

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  • Ivan Mendieta-Munoz
  • Mengheng Li

Abstract

This paper studies the evolution of long-run output and labour productivity growth rates in the G-7 countries during the post-war period. We estimate the growth rates consistent with a constant unemployment rate using time-varying parameter models that incorporate both stochastic volatility and a Heckman-type two-step estimation procedure that deals with the possible endogeneity problem in the econometric models. The results show a significant decline in long-run growth rates that is not associated with the detrimental effects of the Great Recession, and that the rate of growth of labour productivity appears to be behind the slowdown in long-run GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Mendieta-Munoz & Mengheng Li, 2018. "Are long-run output growth rates falling?," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2018_02, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2018_02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    3. Mengheng Li & Irma Hindrayanto, 2018. "Looking for the stars: Estimating the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 51, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. David Kiefer & Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Rudiger von Arnim, 2020. "Secular Stagnation and Income Distribution Dynamics," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 189-207, June.
    5. Felipe, Jesus & Estrada, Gemma & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2022. "The turnaround in Philippine growth: From disappointment to promising success," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 327-342.
    6. Stamegna, Marco, 2022. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: a SVAR analysis for the US economy," MPRA Paper 113855, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run output growth rates; unobserved components; Kalman filter; time- varying parameter models; stochastic volatility; Heckman two-step bias correction. JEL Classification: O41; O47; C15; C32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth

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