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Data Cloning Estimation and Identification of a Medium-Scale DSGE Model

Author

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  • Pedro Chaim

    (Departament of Economics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis 88040-900, SC, Brazil
    These authors contributed equally to this work.
    These authors acknowledge funding from Capes, CNPq (310646/2021-9) and FAPESP (2018/04654-9).)

  • Márcio Poletti Laurini

    (Department of Economics, School of Economics, Business Administration and Accounting at Ribeirão Preto (FEA-RP/USP), Av. dos Bandeirantes 3900, FEARP—University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto 14040-905, SP, Brazil
    These authors contributed equally to this work.
    These authors acknowledge funding from Capes, CNPq (310646/2021-9) and FAPESP (2018/04654-9).)

Abstract

We apply the data cloning method to estimate a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The data cloning algorithm is a numerical method that employs replicas of the original sample to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator as the limit of Bayesian simulation-based estimators. We also analyze the identification properties of the model. We measure the individual identification strength of each parameter by observing the posterior volatility of data cloning estimates and access the identification problem globally through the maximum eigenvalue of the posterior data cloning covariance matrix. Our results corroborate existing evidence suggesting that the DSGE model of Smeets and Wouters is only poorly identified. The model displays weak global identification properties, and many of its parameters seem locally ill-identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Chaim & Márcio Poletti Laurini, 2022. "Data Cloning Estimation and Identification of a Medium-Scale DSGE Model," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jstats:v:6:y:2022:i:1:p:2-29:d:1013558
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    References listed on IDEAS

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