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On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models

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  • Koop, Gary
  • Pesaran, M. Hashem
  • Smith, Ron P.

Abstract

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a lack of identification may not be evident since the posterior of a parameter of interest may differ from its prior even if the parameter is unidentified. We show that this can even be the case even if the priors assumed on the structural parameters are independent. We suggest two Bayesian identification indicators that do not suffer from this difficulty and are relatively easy to compute. The first applies to DSGE models where the parameters can be partitioned into those that are known to be identified and the rest where it is not known whether they are identified. In such cases the marginal posterior of an unidentified parameter will equal the posterior expectation of the prior for that parameter conditional on the identified parameters. The second indicator is more generally applicable and considers the rate at which the posterior precision gets updated as the sample size (T) is increased. For identified parameters the posterior precision rises with T, whilst for an unidentified parameter its posterior precision may be updated but its rate of update will be slower than T. This result assumes that the identified parameters are pT-consistent, but similar differential rates of updates for identified and unidentified parameters can be established in the case of super consistent estimators. These results are illustrated by means of simple DSGE models.

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File URL: http://repo.sire.ac.uk/handle/10943/259
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2011-18.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:259

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Keywords: Bayesian identifi cation; DSGE models; posterior updating; New Keynesian Phillips Curve;

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  1. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Working Paper 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Juan F. Rubio-Ram�rez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
  3. Pudney, S. E., 1982. "The identification of rational expectations models under structural neutrality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 117-121, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron P., 2011. "Beyond the DSGE Straitjacket," IZA Discussion Papers 5661, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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