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The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) in a small open economy: The irish context

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Meyler, Aidan

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Abstract

In Ireland the link between real disequilibrium (such as the unemployment gap) and inflation (either price or wage) is blurred by external factors, operating through traded goods price inflation. Attempts to extract information about the unobservable NAIRU from aggregate inflation measures, such as the HICP or wages inflation, are likely to be swamped by these external factors. This paper uses a measure of ‘domestically generated’ inflation (defined as the gap between the services inflation rate and the goods inflation rate), to capture domestic inflationary pressures arising from the labour market. A strong relationship is seen to exist between ‘domestically generated’ inflation and labour market tightness. The results also suggest that the NAIRU may not have varied significantly since 1979, despite the large movements in unemployment over the same period.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11363.

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Date of creation: Dec 1999
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Publication status: Published in Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland Technical Paper Series 5/RT/99.1999(1999): pp. 1-67
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11363

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Related research
Keywords: Ireland; unemployment ; inflation ; traded goods ; NAIRU domestically generated inflation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  4. Meyler, Aidan & Kenny, Geoff & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models," MPRA Paper 11359, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Dave Turner & Elena Seghezza, 1999. "Testing for a Common OECD Phillips Curve," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 219, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Hasan Bakhshi & Anthony Yates, . "Are UK inflation expectations rational?," Bank of England working papers 81, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  18. Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-12. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Slevin, Geraldine, 2001. "Potential Output and the Output Gap in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/01, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
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