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The slope of the yield curve and real economic activity: tracing the transmission mechanism

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  • Peel, David A.
  • Taylor, Mark P.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-3T3RX42-D/2/595b745042465d8ab7403c8e092b605c
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 59 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 353-360

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:59:y:1998:i:3:p:353-360

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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References

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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  3. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  4. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(4), pages 781-806, December.
  6. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Chikashi Tsuji, 2005. "Does the term structure predict real economic activity in Japan?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 249-257, July.
  2. Huseyin Kaya, 2013. "On the Predictive Power of Yield Spread for Future Growth and Recession: The Turkish Case?," Working Papers 010, Bahcesehir University, Betam.
  3. Caroline Jardet, 2002. "Why did the Term Structure of Interest Rates Lose its Predictive Power ?," Working Papers 2002-05, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  4. Georgopoulos, George & Hejazi, Walid, 2009. "Financial structure and the heterogeneous impact of monetary policy across industries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33.
  5. Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2001. "Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 2906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Omay, Tolga, 2008. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate as a Predictor of Inflation and Real Economic Activity: Nonlinear Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 28572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Rajan Goyal & K. Kanagasabapathy, 2002. "Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity- An Empirical Exercise on the Indian Economy," IMF Working Papers 02/91, International Monetary Fund.

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