On the Predictive Power of Yield Spread for Future Growth and Recession: The Turkish Case
AbstractThis paper investigates the predictive power of the yield spread on future industrial production growth and recession in Turkey. Employing the linear regression model we find that the yield spread has predictive power when forecasting industrial production growth. The results also suggest that in the inflation targeting monetary policy period, predictive power of the yield spread has increased. Furthermore, we investigate whether the yield spread predicts recession by employing a probit model. Since no official recessions are available in Turkey, we determine the recessions using the BBQ methodology. The findings suggest that the yield spread predicts the recessions about one year ahead.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bahcesehir University, Betam in its series Working Papers with number 010.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision: Mar 2013
yield curve; recession; growth; forecast;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-04-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2013-04-13 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-FOR-2013-04-13 (Forecasting)
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