The Leading Indicator Property of the Term Spread and the Monetary Policy Factors in Japan
AbstractMany studies have observed the leading indicator property of the term spread (LIPTS), which indicates that the term spread\the difference between long- and short-term interest rates\ has the information on future economic conditions. We examine whether this property is related to the monetary policy or not using the Japanese monthly data with consideration for structural changes. Results of structural change tests show that the term spread has the predictive ability for the future economic activity from 1982:4 to 1997:8. Decomposing the term spread into three parts; one is explained by past monetary policy shocks, another is explained by expected future call rates and the other is the remaining part, we find that all three parts are significantly related to the future economic growth rate. Hence, we find that the monetary policy play an important role for the LIPTS.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) in its series Discussion Papers in Economics and Business with number 13-09.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision: Jul 2013
leading indicator property of the term spread (LIPTS); term spread; future economic activity; monetary policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-06-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2013-06-09 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-06-09 (Monetary Economics)
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