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Pronósticos para una economía menos volátil: El caso colombiano

Author

Listed:
  • Santiago Cajiao Raigosa
  • Luis Fernando Melo Velandia
  • Daniel Parra Amado

Abstract

Este trabajo evalúa si las transformaciones de potencia (Box-Cox y en particular logarítmica) de series de tiempo mejoran la precisión de los pronósticos de modelos ARIMA ajustados a variables económicas de Colombia en dos periodos diferentes: 1980-1995 y 2002-2012. Se compara la habilidad predictiva de series en nivel y series transformadas a través de un experimento fuera de muestra mediante el uso de la prueba de habilidad predictiva incondicional de Giacomini y White [2006]. Se encuentra que los pronósticos de las series transformadas, en general, se desempeñan mejor para el periodo 1980-1995, cuando la economía colombiana fue relativamente más volátil que durante el periodo 2002-2012. Para este último tramo de la muestra, los resultados son mixtos y para algunas series se sugiere mantenerlas en niveles; es decir, sin utilizar transformaciones de potencia.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Cajiao Raigosa & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2014. "Pronósticos para una economía menos volátil: El caso colombiano," Borradores de Economia 11252, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:011252
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transformación de potencia; transformación logarítmica; evaluación de pronósticos.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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