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Uncovering the sources of sectoral employment fluctuations

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Author Info

  • Bryn Battersby

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Michael Kouparitsas

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Josiah Munro

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

This paper explores the sources of fluctuations in sectoral employment growth rates across the Australian economy over three different periods: the pre-terms of trade boom period; the pre-GFC phase of the terms of trade boom; and the GFC and post-GFC phase. We find that common cyclical fluctuations, not just sector specific shocks, can and do have an important effect on sectoral growth rate dispersion across the full sample. We also find that there is evidence of accelerated structural change in the latter phase of the terms of trade boom.

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File URL: http://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2013/Sectoral%20employment%20fluctuations/Key%20Documents/PDF/TWP_2013_03.ashx
File Function: First version, 2013
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Treasury, Australian Government in its series Treasury Working Papers with number 2013-03.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision: Sep 2013
Handle: RePEc:tsy:wpaper:wpaper_tsy_wp_2013_3

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Related research

Keywords: Kalman-filter; unobserved components; sectoral employment;

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  1. Abraham, Katharine G. & Katz, Lawrence F., 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Scholarly Articles 3442781, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
  3. Theodore M. Crone & Alan Clayton-Matthews, 2005. "Consistent Economic Indexes for the 50 States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 593-603, November.
  4. Ellen R. Rissman, 1997. "Measuring labor market turbulence," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-14.
  5. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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