Uncovering the sources of sectoral employment fluctuations
AbstractThis paper explores the sources of fluctuations in sectoral employment growth rates across the Australian economy over three different periods: the pre-terms of trade boom period; the pre-GFC phase of the terms of trade boom; and the GFC and post-GFC phase. We find that common cyclical fluctuations, not just sector specific shocks, can and do have an important effect on sectoral growth rate dispersion across the full sample. We also find that there is evidence of accelerated structural change in the latter phase of the terms of trade boom.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Treasury, Australian Government in its series Treasury Working Papers with number 2013-03.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision: Sep 2013
Kalman-filter; unobserved components; sectoral employment;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
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