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The Welfare Cost of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in the Post-War Period

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  • João Victor Issler

    (Graduate School of Economics - EPGE, Getulio Vargas Foundation)

  • Afonso Arinos de Mello Franco

    (Graduate School of Economics - EPGE, Getulio Vargas Foundation)

  • Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén

    (IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro and Banco Central do Brasil)

Abstract

Lucas (1987) has shown the surprising result that the welfare cost of business cycles is quite small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-fledged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for the post-WWII era using the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition for trends and cycles, which considers not only business-cycle uncertainty but also uncertainty from the stochastic trend in consumption. The post-WWII period is relatively quiet, with the welfare costs of uncertainty being about 0.9% of per-capita consumption. Although changing the decomposition method changed substantially initial results, the welfare cost of uncertainty is qualitatively small in the post-WWII era - about $175.00 a year per-capita in the U.S. We also computed the marginal welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty using this same technique. It is about twice as large as the welfare cost - $350.00 a year per-capita.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro in its series IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers with number 2006-02.

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Date of creation: 02 Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ibr:dpaper:2006-02

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Keywords: welfare costs of business cycles; Beveridge-Nelson decomposition;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "An Intra-Household Approach to the Welfare Costs of Inflation (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Estudos Econômicos)," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 612, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  2. Renato G. Fl�res & Maria Paula Fontoura & Rog�rio Guerra Santos, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers in Portugal: Additional Lessons from a Country Study," European Journal of Development Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 372-390.
  3. Torres-Martínez, Juan Pablo & Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Páscoa, Mario Rui, 2006. "Bubbles, Collateral and Monetary Equilibrium," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 614, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  4. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco-Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2013. "On the Welfare Costs of Business-Cycle Fluctuations and Economic-Growth Variation in the 20th Century and Beyond," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 748, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  5. Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Neri, Breno de Andrade Pinheiro, 2006. "Comparing Value-at-Risk Methodologies," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 629, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  6. Lima, Luiz Renato & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Sampaio, Raquel M.B., 2008. "Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: A quantile autoregression approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 313-335, June.
  7. Monteiro, Paulo Klinger, 2004. "First-Price auction symmetric equlibria with a general distribution," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 568, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  8. Zhijie Xiao & Luiz Renato Lima, 2007. "Testing Covariance Stationarity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 643-667.
  9. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Watanuki, Masakazu, 2006. "Integration Options for Mercosul - An Investigation Using the AMIDA Model," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 610, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  10. Araújo, Fabio & Issler, João Victor & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2006. "A Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to Asset Pricing Using Panel Data," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 628, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  11. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "Income Inequality in a Job-Search Model With Heterogeneous Discount Factors (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Revista Economia)," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 611, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  12. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão, 2006. "The Diversity of Diversity: further methodological considerations on the use of the concept in cultural economics," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 626, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).

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