This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Forecasting With Leading Economic Indicators - A Non-Linear Approach

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Timotej Jagric

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Leading economic indicators have a long tradition in forecasting future economic activity. Recent developments, however, suggest that there is scope for adding extensions to the methodology of forecasting major economic fluctuations. In this paper, the author tries to develop a new model, which would outperform the forecast accuracy of classical leading indicators model. The use of artificial neural networks is proposed here. For demonstration a case study for Slovene economy is included. The main finding is that, at the twelve months forecasting horizon, a stable and improved forecast accuracy could be achieved for in- and out-of-sample data.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/abstrakt.php3?IDcl=207
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: free of charge, full text delayed 3 months

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 2003 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:1:id:207

Contact details of provider:
Postal: nam. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3
Phone: (02) 24 09 51 11
Fax: (02) 24 22 06 57
Web page: http://www.vse.cz/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Editorial office Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3, Czech Republic
Email:
Web: http://www.vse.cz/pep/

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Vaclav Subrta).

Related research
Keywords: leading economic indicators; neural network; forecasting; aggregate economic activity;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also indexes books.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-6.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.