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Bubbles and crashes: Gradient dynamics in financial markets

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  • Friedman, Daniel
  • Abraham, Ralph

Abstract

Fund managers respond to the payoff gradient by continuously adjusting leverage in our analytic and simulation models. The base model has a stable equilibrium with classic properties. However, bubbles and crashes occur in extended models incorporating an endogenous market risk premium based on investors' historical losses and constant-gain learning. When losses have been small for a long time, asset prices inflate as fund managers increase leverage. Then slight losses can trigger a crash, as a widening risk premium accelerates deleveraging and asset price declines.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 922-937

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:4:p:922-937

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Bubbles Escape dynamics Time varying risk premium Constant-gain learning Agent-based models;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Friedman, Daniel & Ostrov, Daniel N., 2013. "Evolutionary dynamics over continuous action spaces for population games that arise from symmetric two-player games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 743-777.
  2. Bischi, Gian Italo & Lamantia, Fabio, 2012. "A dynamic model of oligopoly with R&D externalities along networks. Part I," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 51-65.
  3. Li, Minqiang, 2010. "A damped diffusion framework for financial modeling and closed-form maximum likelihood estimation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 132-157, February.
  4. Feldman, Todd, 2010. "Portfolio manager behavior and global financial crises," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 192-202, August.
  5. Feldman, Todd, 2011. "Leverage regulation: An agent-based simulation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 431-440, September.
  6. Friedman, Daniel & Isaac, R. Mark & James, Duncan & Sunder, Shyam, 2014. "Risky Curves: On the Empirical Failure of Expected Utility," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt87v8k86z, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.

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