Has US inflation really become harder to forecast?
AbstractSince the mid-1980s, Phillips curve forecasts of US inflation have been inferior to those of a conventional causal autoregression. However, little change in forecast accuracy is detected against the benchmark of a noncausal autoregression, more accurately characterizing US inflation dynamics.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 115 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet
Inflation forecast; Noncausal time series; Phillips curve;
Other versions of this item:
- Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2010. "Has U.S. Inflation Really Become Harder to Forecast?," MPRA Paper 29992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2009.
"Bayesian Model Selection and Forecasting in Noncausal Autoregressive Models,"
23646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Markku Lanne & Arto Luoma & Jani Luoto, 2012. "Bayesian Model Selection And Forecasting In Noncausal Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 812-830, 08.
- Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2010.
"Optimal Forecasting of Noncausal Autoregressive Time Series,"
23648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2012. "Optimal forecasting of noncausal autoregressive time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 623-631.
- Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2008.
"Modeling Expectations with Noncausal Autoregressions,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2008/20, European University Institute.
- Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2008. "Modeling Expectations with Noncausal Autoregressions," MPRA Paper 8411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
- Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2012.
"Optimal forecasting of noncausal autoregressive time series,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 623-631.
- Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2010. "Optimal Forecasting of Noncausal Autoregressive Time Series," MPRA Paper 23648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Markku Lanne, 2013. "Noncausality and Inflation Persistence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1286, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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