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Foreign Shocks and Monetary Policy Transmission in Chile

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  • Eric Parrado H.

Abstract

This paper considers empirical evidence for a small open economy, characterizing and identifying the dynamic effects of foreign and monetary policy shocks on Chilean macroeconomic variables. A structural VAR approach is used with non-recursive contemporaneous restrictions. The analysis provides several interesting results. First, consistent with the predictions of a stochastic rational-expectations model, a domestic monetary contraction generates a temporary reduction of output and monetary aggregates. Second, there is no evidence of price and exchange rate puzzles. Third, the source of Chilean output, price level, and real exchange rate volatility is similar to that identified in industrial countries; monetary policy explains a relatively small fraction of output, price level, and exchange-rate variability. Finally, foreign monetary policy innovations have short-lived effects on domestic interest rates and have no major influence over other Chilean macroeconomic variables. However, risk premium shocks influence significantly both the interest rate and the exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Central Bank of Chile in its journal Economía Chilena.

Volume (Year): 4 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 29-57

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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:4:y:2001:i:3:p:29-57

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  1. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  2. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1996. "Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 847-859, April.
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Working Papers 1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1997. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: A comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1201-1249, June.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Rómulo A. Chumacero, 2005. "A Toolkit for Analyzing Alternative Policies in the Chilean Economy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel ( (ed.), General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 8, pages 261-302 Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  8. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
  9. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  10. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  11. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
  12. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1992. "The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification," Working Paper 92-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. Eric Parrado & Andres Velasco, 2002. "Optimal Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Critical Issues," NBER Working Papers 4368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique, 1998. "Empirical Puzzles of Chilean Stabilization Policy," Working Papers 98-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  17. Patricio Rojas, 1993. "El Dinero como un Objetivo Intermedio de Política Monetaria en Chile: Un Análisis Empírico," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 30(90), pages 139-178.
  18. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Helmut Franken & Guillermo Le Fort & Eric Parrado, 2005. "Business Cycle Dynamics and Shock Resilience in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 331, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Helmut Franken & Guillermo Le Fort & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Business Cycle Responses and the Resilence of the Chilean Economy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo Caballero & César Calderón & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus (ed.), External Vulnerability and Preventive Policies, edition 1, volume 10, chapter 4, pages 071-108 Central Bank of Chile.

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