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Detrending and the Distributional Properties of U.S. Output Time Series

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  • Giorgio Fagiolo
  • Mauro Napoletano
  • Marco Piazza
  • Andrea Roventini

Abstract

We study the impact of alternative detrending techniques on the distributional properties of U.S. output time series. We detrend GDP and industrial production time series employing first-differencing, Hodrick-Prescott and bandpass filters. We show that the resulting distributions can be approximated by symmetric Exponential-Power densities, with tails fatter than those of a Gaussian. We also employ frequency-band decomposition procedures finding that fat tails occur more likely at high and medium business-cycle frequencies. These results confirm the robustness of the fat-tail property of detrended output time-series distributions and suggest that business-cycle models should take into account this empirical regularity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2009/14.

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Date of creation: 14 Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2009/14

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Keywords: Statistical Distributions; Detrending; HP Filter; Bandpass Filter; Normality; Fat Tails; Time Series; Exponential-Power Density; Business Cycles Dynamics;

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References

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  1. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
  2. Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-50, January.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  4. Mauro Napoletano & Jackie Krafft & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? Some evidence from OECD countries," Sciences Po publications 36, Sciences Po.
  5. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2006. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Symmetric and Asymmetric Exponential Power Distribution," LEM Papers Series 2006/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  6. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  7. Carolina Castaldi & Giovanni Dosi, 2009. "The patterns of output growth of firms and countries: Scale invariances and scale specificities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 475-495, December.
  8. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  9. Bottazzi, Giulio & Secchi, Angelo, 2003. "Why are distributions of firm growth rates tent-shaped?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 415-420, September.
  10. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
  11. Simona Delle Chiaie, 2009. "The sensitivity of DSGE models’ results to data detrending," Working Papers 157, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  12. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2003. "Sectoral Specifities in the Dynamics of U.S. Manufacturing Firms," LEM Papers Series 2003/18, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
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Cited by:
  1. Guido Ascari & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Fat-Tail Distributions and Business-Cycle Models," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-7, University of Paris West - Nanterre la DĂ©fense, EconomiX.
  2. Giulio Bottazzi & Marco Duenas, 2012. "The Evolution of the Business Cycles and Growth Rates Distributions," LEM Papers Series 2012/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  3. De Grauwe, Paul, 2012. "Booms and busts in economic activity: A behavioral explanation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 484-501.

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