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The sensitivity of DSGE models’ results to data detrending

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  • Simona Delle Chiaie

    ()
    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, P.O. Box 61, A-1010 Vienna)

Abstract

This paper aims to shed light on potential pitfalls of different data filtering and detrending procedures for the estimation of stationary DSGE models. For this purpose, a medium-sized New Keynesian model as the one developed by Smets and Wouters (2003) is used to assess the sensitivity of the structural estimates to preliminary data transformations. To examine the question, we focus on two widely used detrending and filtering methods, the HP filter and linear detrending. After comparing the properties of business cycle components, we estimate the model through Bayesian techniques using in turn the two different sets of transformed data. Empirical findings show that posterior distributions of structural parameters are rather sensitive to the choice of detrending. As a consequence, both the magnitude and the persistence of theoretical responses to shocks depend upon preliminary filtering.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 157.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 20 Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:157

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Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
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Keywords: DSGE models; Filters; Trends; Bayesian estimates;

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Cited by:
  1. Jürgen Jerger & Oke Röhe, 2009. "Testing for Parameter Stability in DSGE Models. The Cases of France, Germany and Spain," Working Papers 276, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies), revised Mar 2011.
  2. Pirmin Fessler & Fabio Rumler & Gerhard Schwarz, 2014. "A micro-based non-inflationary rate of capacity utilisation as a measure of inflationary pressure: evidence for Austria," Empirica, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 23-36, February.
  3. Bussière, Matthieu & Stracca, Livio, 2010. "A decade (and a global financial crisis) after Blinder: The interaction between researchers and policy-makers in central banks," Working Paper Series 1260, European Central Bank.
  4. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Marco Piazza & Andrea Roventini, 2009. "Detrending and the Distributional Properties of U.S. Output Time Series," LEM Papers Series 2009/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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