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Interest Rate Co-movements, Global Factors and the Long End of the Term Spread

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  • Byrne, Joseph P.
  • Fazio, Giorgio
  • Fiess, Norbert

Abstract

The disconnect between rising short and low long interest rates has been a distinctive feature of the 2000s. Both research and policy circles have argued that international forces, such as global monetary policy (e.g. Rogoff, 2006); international business cycles (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007); or a global savings glut (e.g Bernanke, 2005) may be responsible. In this paper, we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to document the disconnect and link it explicitly to the existence of a global latent factor that dominates the long end of the term spread for the recent period; the saving glut story emerges as the most likely contender for the global factor.

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File URL: http://repo.sire.ac.uk/handle/10943/156
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2010-24.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:156

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Keywords: Short and Long Interest Rates; Financial Globalization; Panel Data; Factor Models;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Joseph P. Byrne & Giorgio Fazio & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Working Papers 2010_27, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  2. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert, 2011. "International Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Countries: National and Global Determinants," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-03, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  3. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo De Pace & Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "How did the financial crisis alter the correlations of U.S. yield spreads?," Working Papers 2013-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Sonali Jain-Chandra & D. Filiz Unsal, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows," IMF Working Papers 12/265, International Monetary Fund.

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