Examining the Determinants of Food Prices in Developing Asia
AbstractHow the price of food is determined has become a critical issue, given the drastic surges in prices in recent years and the prevailing expectation of further increases. Along this line, this paper examines the sources of food price fluctuations in 11 developing Asian countries. The working model is a block vector autoregression (VAR), and 10 variables are classified into three blocks—world, region, and country—depending on their origin and nature. Empirical evidence shows that the regional shock plays a pivotal role in explaining the variations of domestic food prices, particularly at medium- to long-term horizons. Contrary to conventional belief, the world food price shock contributes little to the dynamics of domestic food prices in developing Asia. The findings suggest Asian food markets are more integrated regionally than with the world market. The short-run movements of domestic food prices are accounted for largely by the country’s own shock. Taken together, our findings suggest that promoting food price stability would require efforts at the regional level as well as at the domestic level, reflecting the influence of region-specific factors. Extensions to the developing countries in other regions produce similar findings on the determination of food prices.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series ADB Economics Working Paper Series with number 370.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 03 Sep 2013
Date of revision:
food price; developing Asia; Shocks; block VAR;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2013-11-16 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2013-11-16 (Development)
- NEP-SEA-2013-11-16 (South East Asia)
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