IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/mareco/v5y2011i2p221-243.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating Infrastructural Investment Needs for India

Author

Listed:
  • Chandan Sharma

    (Chandan Sharma is Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, National Institute of Financial Management, Sector 48, Faridabad 121001, Haryana, India. Telephone: +91-129-2465268, Fax: +91-0129-2418867; email: chandanieg@gmail.com)

  • N.R. Bhanumurthy

    (N.R. Bhanumurthy is Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy 18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg, Special Institutional Area, New Delhi 110067, India, Telephone: +91-11-26563688; email: nrbmurthy@gmail.com)

Abstract

This article attempts to systemically project the demand and fund requirements for the Indian infrastructure sector up to 2013. In the infrastructure sector transportation (rail, port, air and road), electricity and telecommunication sectors are covered in this study. The analysis is carried out in two stages. In the first stage, long-run linkages between infrastructure variables and income are established by applying the cointegration method. Subsequently, infrastructure demand functions are estimated by using a dynamic ordinary least squares (OLS) (DOLS) technique. In the second stage, by using the estimated infrastructure elasticity to income of variables and IMF’s projected income data, we project sector-wise demand and funding requirements. The results of the analysis indicates that in important sectors like electricity and ports, the government (the Planning Commission) has seriously underestimated future demand, while in the air transport sector, demand seems to be overestimated. Only in telecommunications, are the projections of this study at par with the government’s projections. Overall, we find that the government has underestimated infrastructure needs by at least 7 per cent. Based on these results, we propose the initiation of a set of reforms in the existing financing pattern of infrastructure in the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Chandan Sharma & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2011. "Estimating Infrastructural Investment Needs for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 221-243, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:5:y:2011:i:2:p:221-243
    DOI: 10.1177/097380101100500203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/097380101100500203
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/097380101100500203?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    3. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    4. Mitra, Arup & Varoudakis, Aristomene & Veganzones-Varoudakis, Marie-Ange, 2002. "Productivity and Technical Efficiency in Indian States' Manufacturing: The Role of Infrastructure," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(2), pages 395-426, January.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Bogetic, Zeljko & Fedderke, Johannes W., 2006. "Forecasting investment needs in South Africa's electricity and telecommunications sectors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3829, The World Bank.
    7. Muhammad Akmal & David I. Stern, 2001. "Residential energy demand in Australia: an application of dynamic OLS," Working Papers in Ecological Economics 0104, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
    8. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    9. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    10. Chandan Sharma & Sanjay Sehgal, 2010. "Impact of infrastructure on output, productivity and efficiency," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(2), pages 100-121, September.
    11. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    12. Hulten, Charles R. & Schwab, Robert M., 1997. "A fiscal federalism approach to infrastructure policy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 139-159, April.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    14. żeljko Bogetić & Johannes W. Fedderke, 2006. "Forecasting Investment Needs In South Africa'S Electricity And Telecom Sectors," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 557-574, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marie-Ange Véganzonès-Varoudakis & Arup Mitra & Chandan Sharma, 2012. "Are Reforms Productive? Explaining Productivity and Efficiency in the Indian Manufacturing," Post-Print hal-03058727, HAL.
    2. Mitra, Arup & Sharma, Chandan & Véganzonès-Varoudakis, Marie-Ange, 2014. "Trade liberalization, technology transfer, and firms’ productive performance: The case of Indian manufacturing," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Mitra, Arup & Sharma, Chandan & Véganzonès-Varoudakis, Marie-Ange, 2016. "Infrastructure, information & communication technology and firms’ productive performance of the Indian manufacturing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 353-371.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-056 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Farhani, Sahbi & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "The role of natural gas consumption and trade in Tunisia's output," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 677-684.
    4. Sahbi Farhani & Anissa Chaibi & Christophe Rault, 2014. "A study of CO2 emissions, output,energy consumption, and trade," Working Papers 2014-56, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-057 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Farhani, Sahbi & Chaibi, Anissa & Rault, Christophe, 2014. "CO2 emissions, output, energy consumption, and trade in Tunisia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 426-434.
    7. repec:ipg:wpaper:201415 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "Japanese aggregate import demand function: reassessment from the 'bounds' testing approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 419-436, December.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-582 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Lester C. Hunt & Ceyhun I. Mikayilov, 2016. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand in Azerbaijan Using Cointegration Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-31, December.
    11. Judith A. Giles & Sadaf Mirza, 1999. "Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality," Econometrics Working Papers 9914, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    12. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.
    13. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2015. "Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 158-163.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    15. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    16. Scheiblecker, Marcus, 2013. "Between cointegration and multicointegration: Modelling time series dynamics by cumulative error correction models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 511-517.
    17. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    18. Mitra, Arup & Sharma, Chandan & Véganzonès-Varoudakis, Marie-Ange, 2016. "Infrastructure, information & communication technology and firms’ productive performance of the Indian manufacturing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 353-371.
    19. Park, Cheolbeom & Park, Sookyung, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability and a monetary model with time-varying cointegration coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 394-410.
    20. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Marie-Ange VEGANZONES-VAROUDAKIS & Arup MITRA & Chandan SHARMA, 2011. "Total Factor Productivity and Technical Efficiency of Indian Manufacturing: The Role of Infrastructure and Information & Communication Technology," Working Papers 201115, CERDI.
    22. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    23. Bushara, Mohammed O. A. & Abdelmahmod, Murtada Kh. A., 2016. "Efficiency of selected camel markets in Sudan: A multivariate approach (1995-2011)," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246910, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    24. Srinivasan Palamalai & Kalaivani Mariappan & Christopher Devakumar, 2014. "On the Temporal Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables," SAGE Open, , vol. 4(1), pages 21582440145, February.
    25. Tarlok Singh, 2012. "Does public capital crowd-out or crowd-in private capital in India?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 109-133, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Infrastructure Projection; DOLS; India; JEL Classification: C53; JEL Classification: H54;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:5:y:2011:i:2:p:221-243. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ncaer.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.