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Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy

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  • Adrian, Tobias
  • Estrella, Arturo
  • Shin, Hyun Song

Abstract

One of the most robust stylized facts in macroeconomics is the forecasting power of the term spread for future real activity. We propose a possible causal mechanism for the forecasting power of the term spread, deriving from the balance sheet management of financial intermediaries and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Monetary tightening leads to the flattening of the term spread, reducing net interest margin and credit supply. We provide empirical support for the risk-taking channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian, Tobias & Estrella, Arturo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 12677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12677
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    1. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997," NBER Working Papers 10431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    3. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159-214.
    4. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    5. Acemoglu, Daron & Parker, Jonathan A. & Woodford, Michael (ed.), 2013. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226052779, July.
    6. Adrian, Tobias & Song Shin, Hyun, 2010. "Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 12, pages 601-650, Elsevier.
    7. Bernard, Henri & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 195-215, July.
    8. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, March.
    10. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lojak, Benjamin & Makarewicz, Tomasz & Proaño, Christian R., 2023. "Low interest rates, bank’s search-for-yield behavior and financial portfolio management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    3. Georg Leitner & Teresa Hübel & Anna Wolfmayr & Manuel Zerobin, 2021. "How risky is Monetary Policy? The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Risk in the Euro Area," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp312, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    4. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2021. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Bruno de Menna, 2021. "The Joint Impact of Bank Capital and Funding Liquidity on the Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel," Working Papers hal-03138724, HAL.
    6. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Marie‐Hélène Gagnon & Céline Gimet, 2023. "One size may not fit all: Financial fragmentation and European monetary policies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 305-340, February.
    9. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2022. "Financial effects of QE and conventional monetary policy compared," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Erasmo Giambona & Rafael Matta & José-Luis Peydró & Ye Wang, 2020. "Quantitative Easing, Investment, and Safe Assets: The Corporate-Bond Lending Channel," Working Papers 1179, Barcelona School of Economics.
    12. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2021. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Altavilla, Carlo & Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2020. "Mending the broken link: Heterogeneous bank lending rates and monetary policy pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 81-98.
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_016 is not listed on IDEAS

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