Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series

Contents:

Author Info

  • Berkowitz, J.
  • Birgean, I.
  • Kilian, L.

Abstract

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in nonparametric bootstrap inference for economic time series. Nonparametric resampling techniques help protect against overly optimistic inference in time series models of unknown structure. They are particularly useful for evaluating the fit of dynamic economic models in terms of their spectra, impulse responses, and related statistics, because they do not require a correctly specified economic model. Notwithstanding the potential advantages of nonparametric bootstrap methods, their reliability in small samples is questionable. In this paper, we provide a benchmark for the relative accuracy of several nonparametric resampling algorithms based on ARMA representations of four macroeconomic time series. For each algorithm, we evaluate the effective coverage accuracy of impulse response and spectral density bootstrap confidence intervals for standard sample sizes. We find that the autoregressive sieve approach based on the encompassing model is most accurate. However, care must be exercised in selecting the lag order of the autoregressive approximation.

Download Info

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory in its series Papers with number 99-01.

as in new window
Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:michet:99-01

Contact details of provider:
Postal: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL THEORY, ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN U.S.A.

Related research

Keywords: TIME SERIES ; ECONOMIC MODELS;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators For Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 449-476.
  2. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Output dynamics in real business cycle models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Li, Hongyi & Maddala, G. S., 1997. "Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 297-318, October.
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.
  5. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  6. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
  7. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Modeling money," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Diebold, Francis X & Ohanian, Lee E & Berkowitz, Jeremy, 1998. "Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: A Framework for Comparing Models and Data," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 433-51, July.
  10. Bühlmann, Peter, 1995. "The blockwise bootstrap for general empirical processes of stationary sequences," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 247-265, August.
  11. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February.
  12. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  14. Paparoditis, Efstathios, 1996. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive and Moving Average Parameter Estimates of Infinite Order Vector Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 277-296, May.
  15. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-79, April.
  16. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Power spectrum estimation through autoregressive model fitting," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 407-419, December.
  17. Kilian, L., 1998. "Pitfalls in Constructing Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Asymptotically Pivotal Statistics," Papers 98-04, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  18. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Smooth Functions of Slope Parameters and Innovation Variances in VAR (∞) Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 309-332, May.
  19. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," IMF Working Papers 07/110, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, 08.
  3. Giulio Bottazzi & Sandro Sapio & Angelo Secchi, 2004. "Some Statistical Investigations on the Nature and Dynamics of Electricity Prices," LEM Papers Series 2004/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  4. Kilian, Lutz & Gonçalves, Sílvia, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
  6. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators For Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 449-476.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fth:michet:99-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.