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Automated Discovery in Econometrics

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Author Info
Peter C.B. Phillips () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

Our subject is the notion of automated discovery in econometrics. Advances in computer power, electronic communication, and data collection processes have all changed the way econometrics is conducted. These advances have helped to elevate the status of empirical research within the economics profession in recent years and they now open up new possibilities for empirical econometric practice. Of particular significance is the ability to build econometric models in an automated way according to an algorithm of decision rules that allow for (what we call here) heteroskedastic and autocorrelation robust (HAR) inference. Computerized search algorithms may be implemented to seek out suitable models, thousands of regressions and model evaluations may be performed in seconds, statistical inference may be automated according to the properties of the data, and policy decisions can be made and adjusted in real time with the arrival of new data. We discuss some aspects and implications of these exciting, emergent trends in econometrics.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1469.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Econometric Theory (2005), 21(1) :3-20
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1469

Note: CFP 1149.
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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Automation; discovery; HAC estimation; HAR inference; model building; online econometrics; policy analysis; prediction; trends;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General
C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," CEPR Discussion Papers 4402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Kabaila, Paul, 1995. "The Effect of Model Selection on Confidence Regions and Prediction Regions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 537-549, June. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lee, Jin & Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "Testing For Serial Correlation Of Unknown Form Using Wavelet Methods," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 386-423, April. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
    Other versions:
  5. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Donggyu Sul & Peter C.B. Phillips & Choi, Chi-Young, 2003. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1436, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
  8. Kuersteiner, Guido M., 2005. "Automatic Inference For Infinite Order Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 85-115, February. [Downloadable!]
  9. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:774-808 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. P?tscher, B.M., 1991. "Effects of Model Selection on Inference," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 163-185, June. [Downloadable!]
  11. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Nicholas M. Kiefer & Timothy J. Vogelsang & Helle Bunzel, 2000. "Simple Robust Testing of Regression Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 695-714, May.
  13. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:537-49 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Hannes Leeb & Benedikt M. Potscher, 2003. "Can One Estimate the Conditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1444, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Duchesne, Pierre, 2006. "On Testing For Serial Correlation With A Wavelet-Based Spectral Density Estimator In Multivariate Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(04), pages 633-676, August. [Downloadable!]
  18. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C26-C52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Dietmar Bauer & Martin Wagner, 2003. "A Canonical Form for Unit Root Processes in the State Space Framework," Diskussionsschriften dp0312, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1995. "Bayesian model selection and prediction with empirical applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 289-331, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Zellner, Arnold, 1999. "Keep it sophisticatedly simple," CUDARE Working Paper Series 865, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  23. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Bayes Methods for Trending Multiple Time Series with an Empirical Application to the US Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1025, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  24. Oliver Linton, 2004. "Nonparametric inference for unbalance time series data," CeMMAP working papers CWP06/04, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Teodosio Perez-Amaral & Giampiero M. Gallo & Halbert L. White, 2004. "A Comparison of Complementary Automatic Modeling Methods: RETINA and PcGets," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2004_12, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
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  26. Tony Lancaster, 2006. "A note on bootstraps and robustness," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  27. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Automated Forecasts of Asia-Pacific Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1103, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  29. Phillips, Peter C B & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "An Asymptotic Theory of Bayesian Inference for Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 381-412, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Danilov, Dmitry & Magnus, J.R.Jan R., 2004. "On the harm that ignoring pretesting can cause," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 27-46, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1017, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  32. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.
  33. M. A. Kaboudan, 2000. "Genetic Programming Prediction of Stock Prices," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 207-236, December. [Downloadable!]
  34. Bauer, Dietmar & Wagner, Martin, 2002. "Estimating cointegrated systems using subspace algorithms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 47-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  35. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-91, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  36. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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