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Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach

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  • Lombardi, Marco J.
  • Osbat, Chiara
  • Schnatz, Bernd

Abstract

In this paper we examine linkages across non-energy commodity price developments by means of a factor-augmented VAR model (FAVAR). From a set of non-energy commodity price series, we extract two factors, which we identify as common trends in metals and a food prices. These factors are included in a FAVAR model together with selected macroeconomic variables, which have been associated with developments in commodity prices. Impulse response functions confirm that exchange rates and of economic activity affect individual nonenergy commodity prices, but we fail to find strong spillovers from oil to non-oil commodity prices or an impact of the interest rate. In addition, we find that individual commodity prices are affected by common trends captured by the food and metals factors. JEL Classification: E3, F3

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1170.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101170

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Keywords: commodity prices; Exchange Rates; FAVAR; Globalisation; Oil Price;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia & Mariano Sardi, 2012. "Common Drivers in Emerging Market Spreads and Commodity Prices," BCRA Working Paper Series 201257, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
  2. Wang, Xiao & Zhang, Chuanguo, 2014. "The impacts of global oil price shocks on China׳s fundamental industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 394-402.
  3. Todd Kuethe & Todd Hubbs & Mitch Morehart, 2014. "Farmland returns and economic conditions: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 129-142, August.
  4. Aynur Pala, 2013. "Structural Breaks, Cointegration, and Causality by VECM Analysis of Crude Oil and Food Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 238-246.
  5. Carolina Arteaga Cabrales & Joan Camilo Granados Castro & Jair Ojeda Joya, 2011. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Commodity Prices: Disentangling the Evidence for Individual Prices," Borradores de Economia 685, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Joseph P. Byrne & Giorgio Fazio & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Working Papers 2010_27, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  7. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Commodity Prices and BRIC and G3 Liquidity: A SFAVEC Approach," CAMA Working Papers 2014-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Oil prices and the economy: A global perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2014-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  9. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2011. "World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2935-2943, May.
  10. Trujillo-Barrera, Andres & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2013. "Energy and Food Commodity Prices Linkage: An Examination with Mixed-Frequency Data," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150465, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  11. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler & German Dabat, 2011. "Co-movements in commodity prices: A note based on network analysis," CREMA Working Paper Series 2011-21, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).

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