IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v19y2022i3d10.1007_s10368-022-00529-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A time series approach to study the dynamic effects of bilateral trade agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Blanca Jiménez-García

    (Banco de España)

  • Julio Rodríguez

    (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)

Abstract

In this work, the effects of 103 bilateral regional trade agreements (RTAs: partial scope agreements — PSAs — and free trade agreements — FTAs) are studied in a dynamic way. The analysis of quarterly trade flows from Q4-1982 to Q4-2018 shows dynamic differences between RTAs and among trade partners. Results show that countries benefit unevenly from bilateral RTAs and that their economic size is not determinant. The positive global trade trend since the 1990s and the negative effect of the 2008 economic crisis are captured by the factor analysis in order to study specifically how trade agreements affect bilateral trade asymmetrically. On average, RTAs promote a 10% increase in bilateral trade flows above the mean trend, but PSAs tend to enhance bilateral trade more than FTAs (21% compared to 9%). Additionally, PSAs gather most of the effects during the first four quarters after the agreements are enforced whereas FTAs have longer effects over time. The current study allows a classification of bilateral trade series in homogeneous groups according to the dynamic impact of the bilateral RTAs by the means of a cluster analysis. Heterogeneity between clusters is therefore explored. Moreover, a difference concerning the economic crisis starting in 2008 is noticed: overall, for agreements in force before 2008, their impact on bilateral trade is positive (30%) while it is negative for agreements signed after 2008 (− 9%). This indicates that RTAs play a heterogeneous role as a smoothing cycle mechanism. Finally, evidence of the anticipation effect is found.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanca Jiménez-García & Julio Rodríguez, 2022. "A time series approach to study the dynamic effects of bilateral trade agreements," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 615-643, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:19:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10368-022-00529-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-022-00529-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-022-00529-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-022-00529-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "What Do Trade Agreements Really Do?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 73-90, Spring.
    2. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
    3. Dai, Mian & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2014. "On the trade-diversion effects of free trade agreements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 321-325.
    4. McLaren, John, 1997. "Size, Sunk Costs, and Judge Bowker's Objection to Free Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 400-420, June.
    5. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October.
    6. Michael Tomz & Judith L. Goldstein & Douglas Rivers, 2007. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 2005-2018, December.
    7. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    8. Tristan Kohl & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen, 2016. "Do Trade Agreements Stimulate International Trade Differently? Evidence from 296 Trade Agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 97-131, January.
    9. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Clance, Matthew W., 2018. "Heterogeneous effects of economic integration agreements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 587-608.
    10. Vicard, Vincent, 2011. "Determinants of successful regional trade agreements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 188-190, June.
    11. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    12. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    13. Tristan Kohl, 2014. "Do we really know that trade agreements increase trade?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 443-469, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dutt, Pushan, 2020. "The WTO is not passé," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Blanca Jiménez-García & Julio Rodríguez, 2022. "A quantification of the evolution of bilateral trade flows Once bilateral RTAs are implemented," Working Papers 2220, Banco de España.
    3. Timini, Jacopo & Viani, Francesca, 2022. "A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 291-308.
    4. Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Revisiting the ‘Cobden-Chevalier network’ trade and welfare effects," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Ayman El Dahrawy Sánchez‐Albornoz & Jacopo Timini, 2021. "Trade agreements and Latin American trade (creation and diversion) and welfare," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 2004-2040, July.
    6. Julia Seiermann, 2018. "Only Words? How Power in Trade Agreement Texts Affects International Trade Flows," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 80, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    7. Scott L. Baier & Narendra R. Regmi, 2023. "Using Machine Learning to Capture Heterogeneity in Trade Agreements," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 863-894, September.
    8. Rod Falvey & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "The breadth of preferential trade agreements and the margins of exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 181-251, February.
    9. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero, 2020. "Does the GATT/WTO promote trade? After all, Rose was right," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(2), pages 377-405, May.
    10. Emanuel Ornelas & Marcos Ritel, 2020. "The not‐so‐generalised effects of the Generalized System of Preferences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1809-1840, July.
    11. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    12. Duc Bao Nguyen & Anne‐Gaël Vaubourg, 2021. "Financial intermediation, trade agreements and international trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 788-817, March.
    13. Díaz-Mora, Carmen & Esteve-Pérez, Silviano & Gil-Pareja, Salvador, 2023. "A re-assessment of the heterogeneous effect of trade agreements using intra-national trade flows," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 940-951.
    14. Maggi, Giovanni, 2014. "International Trade Agreements," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 317-390, Elsevier.
    15. Mario Larch & Aiko F. Schmeißer & Joschka Wanner, 2021. "A Tale of (almost) 1001 Coefficients: The Deep and Heterogeneous Effects of the EU‐Turkey Customs Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 242-260, March.
    16. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2022. "Assessing the impact of China shocks on intra-ASEAN trade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Gabriele Spilker & Thomas Bernauer & In Song Kim & Helen Milner & Iain Osgood & Dustin Tingley, 2018. "Trade at the margin: Estimating the economic implications of preferential trade agreements," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 189-242, June.
    18. Tristan Kohl, 2014. "Do we really know that trade agreements increase trade?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 443-469, August.
    19. Hou, Jia, 2020. "Independence Status of Territories and the Estimated Trade Effects of Regional Trade Agreements," MPRA Paper 104040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Zouheir El-Sahli, 2023. "The Partial and General Equilibrium Effects of the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 185-199, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:19:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10368-022-00529-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.