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Dynamic Specification Tests for Dynamic Factor Models

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Abstract

We derive computationally simple and intuitive expressions for score tests of neglected serial correlation in common and idiosyncratic factors in dynamic factor models using frequency domain techniques. The implied time domain orthogonality conditions are analogous to the conditions obtained by treating the smoothed estimators of the innovations in the latent factors as if they were observed, but they account for their final estimation errors. Monte Carlo exercises confirm the finite sample reliability and power of our proposed tests. Finally, we illustrate their empirical usefulness in an application that constructs a monthly coincident indicator for the US from four macro series.

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  • Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2013. "Dynamic Specification Tests for Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2013_1306, CEMFI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2013_1306
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    1. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2016. "Neglected serial correlation tests in UCARIMA models," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 121-178, March.
    2. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    3. Martín Almuzara & Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2022. "GDP Solera. The Ideal Vintage Mix," Working Papers wp2022_2204, CEMFI.
    4. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Galesi, Alessandro & Sentana, Enrique, 2018. "A spectral EM algorithm for dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 249-279.
    5. Dickhaus, Thorsten & Sirotko-Sibirskaya, Natalia, 2019. "Simultaneous statistical inference in dynamic factor models: Chi-square approximation and model-based bootstrap," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 30-46.
    6. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Tests for Serial Dependence in Static, Non-Gaussian Factor Models," Working Papers wp2012_1211, CEMFI.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kalman filter; LM tests; Spectral maximum likelihood; Wiener-Kolmogorov filter.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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