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Applying approximate entropy (ApEn) to speculative bubble in the stock market

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  • Saumitra, Bhaduri

Abstract

In contrast to the traditional duration dependence test, the paper introduces an order statistic known as Approximate Entropy to investigate the presence of speculative bubbles for a cross country sample. Using Approximate Entropy, the article examines four major crash in the US, Japan, Hong Kong and India. In addition, the paper also investigate the 1997 Asian crisis using weekly data for seven major Asian indices which includes Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia and Japan. The results confirm that there are strong “tale-tell” signs characterized by low Approximate Entropy (ApEn) level during many of these crash events. All the evidences using yearly as well as time series data (both discrete and rolling window analysis) point to a substantially lower level of ApEn during the crash.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38015.

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Date of creation: 10 Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38015

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Keywords: Approximate Entropy; Bubble; India; stock Market;

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  1. Gabjin Oh & Seunghwan Kim & Cheoljun Eom, 2006. "Market Efficiency in Foreign Exchange Markets," Papers physics/0608016, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2006.
  2. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
  3. Chan, Kalok & McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1998. "Are there rational speculative bubbles in Asian stock markets?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 125-151, May.
  4. Evans, George W, 1986. "A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 621-36, September.
  5. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N., 1993. "Was There a Bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(03), pages 549-574, September.
  6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  7. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Shiller, Robert J., 1978. "Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models : A critical review," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-44, January.
  9. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-70, August.
  10. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  11. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
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