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Does Oil Consumption Respond Asymmetrically to Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Income Differentials?

Author

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  • Uche, Emmanuel

    (Department of Economics Abia State University P.M.B 2000, Uturu, NIGERIA.)

  • Ihezukwu, Veronica Adaku

    (Department of Economics Abia State University P.M.B 2000, Uturu, NIGERIA.)

  • Osunkwo, Folusho Olufunke Chinyere

    (Department of Economics Abia State University P.M.B 2000, Uturu, NIGERIA.)

  • Okoronkwo, Chijioke

    (Central Bank of Nigeria Plot 33, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Way Central Business District P.M.B. 0187, Garki Abuja, NIGERIA)

Abstract

This study empirically evaluates the dynamic effects oil price, income and exchange rate on oil consumption in Algeria, Angola, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tunisia. Specifically, it tries to reveal the differential effects of rising and falling oil prices, economic prosperities and adversaries, as well as, exchange rate appreciations and depreciation on oil consumption in the selected countries. The current study relied on monthly data sourced from OPEC and IMFIFS data banks and analyzed within the Nonlinear ARDL framework. The NARDL model traces asymmetry in macroeconomic relationships by isolating the effects of positive changes from negative changes. The empirical findings reveal that the effects of oil price deviations on oil consumption is asymmetric in the short-run in Angola and Tunisia, and in the long-run in Nigeria. Furthermore, income and exchange rate deviations affect oil consumption asymmetrically in Algeria, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. However, exchange rate deviation does not have an asymmetric effect on oil consumption in Algeria. The overall implication of such asymmetric effects is that positive deviations could not offset negative deviations and vice-versa. Therefore, to guide against general welfare losses, policymakers should take cognizance of such nonlinear and asymmetric effects in their policy moderations.

Suggested Citation

  • Uche, Emmanuel & Ihezukwu, Veronica Adaku & Osunkwo, Folusho Olufunke Chinyere & Okoronkwo, Chijioke, 2021. "Does Oil Consumption Respond Asymmetrically to Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Income Differentials?," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(2), pages 51-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukm:jlekon:v:55:y:2021:i:2:p:51-63
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/JEM-2021-5502-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Peter Golit & Afees Salisu & Akinwunmi Akintola & Faustina Nsonwu & Itoro Umoren, 2019. "Exchange Rate And Interest Rate Differential In G7 Economies," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(3), pages 1-24.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Uche & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Lionel Effiom, 2023. "Household consumption and exchange rate extreme dynamics: Multiple asymmetric threshold non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag model perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3437-3450, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy demand; asymmetry; exchange rate; income differentials; nonlinear ARDL; oil prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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