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Intraday yen/dollar exchange rate movements: news or noise?

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  • Takatoshi Ito
  • V. Vance Roley

Abstract

Intraday movements in the yen/dollar rate are examined over the 1980-86 period using opening and closing quotes in the New York and Tokyo markets. The results indicate that random-walk behavior is violated about half of the time in various subsamples. However, the economic significance of departures from the random-walk model diminishes over time. Large jumps in the exchange rate also are examined, and some evidence on subsequent mean reversion is presented. Finally, the response of Japanese and U.S. stock prices suggests that intraday yen/dollar rate movements do contain at least some relevant information.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number 88-07.

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Date of creation: 1988
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:88-07

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Keywords: Yen; Japanese ; Dollar; American ; Foreign exchange rates;

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References

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  1. Ito, Takatoshi, 1988. "Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 296-305, May.
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  3. Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," NBER Working Papers 1296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jacob A. Frenkel & Michael L. Mussa, 1980. "Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence," NBER Working Papers 0476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Takatoshi Ito, 1987. "Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 1187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1985. "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises and Fed Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 425-38, November.
  7. Takatoshi Ito & V. Vance Roley, 1987. "News from the U. S. and Japan: Which Moves the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 1853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
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  13. Roley, V Vance, 1987. "The Effects of Money Announcements under Alternative Monetary Control Procedures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 292-307, August.
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  18. Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "The Money Supply Announcements Puzzle: Review and Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 644-57, September.
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  22. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1983. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  24. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-35, September.
  25. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March.
  26. Hakkio, Craig S & Pearce, Douglas K, 1985. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates to Economic News," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(4), pages 621-36, October.
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  28. Ito, Takatoshi, 1987. "The intradaily exchange rate dynamics and monetary policies after the group of five agreement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 275-298, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Angelo Ranaldo, 2007. "Segmentation and Time-of-Day Patterns in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 2007-03, Swiss National Bank.
  2. Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2010. "Effects of Japanese macroeconomic statistic announcements on the dollar/yen exchange rate: High-resolution picture," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 334-354, September.
  3. Ito, Takatoshi & Engle, Robert F. & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1992. "Where does the meteor shower come from? : The role of stochastic policy coordination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 221-240, May.
  4. Lin, Wen-Ling, 1995. "Market closure and predictability of intradaily stock returns in the United States and Japan," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 19-44, March.
  5. Osler, C. L., 1995. "Exchange rate dynamics and speculator horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 695-719, October.
  6. Osler, C. L., 1998. "Short-term speculators and the puzzling behaviour of exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 37-57, June.
  7. José Miguel Melo, 2011. "Estratégia Militar e Gestão de Activos: Uma Visão Heurística," Working Papers de Gestão (Management Working Papers) 01, Faculdade de Economia e Gestão, Universidade Católica Portuguesa (Porto).

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