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Where Does the Meteor Shower Come From? The Role of Stochastic Policy Coordination

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Author Info
Takatoshi Ito
Robert F. Engle
Wen-Ling Lin

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the intra-daily volatility of the yen/dollar exchange rate over three different regimes from 1979 to 1988 which correspond to different degrees of international policy coordination. In each regime we test for heat wave vs. meteor shower effects. The heat wave hypothesis assumes that volatility has only country specific autocorrelations, while the meteor shower hypothesis allows volatility spillovers from one market to the next. Meteor showers can be caused by stochastic policy coordination, by gradual release of private information, or by market failures such as fads, bubbles or bandwagons. The rejection of the heat wave model over the first half of the 1980s discredits the stochastic policy coordination interpretation because there was little policy coordination among industrial countries prior to the Plaza Agreement in 1985.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3504.

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Date of creation: Sep 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3504

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  1. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1988. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 187-202, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Peso Problems, Bubbles, and Risk in the Empirical Assessment of Exchange-Rate Behavior," NBER Working Papers 2203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can international monetary policy cooperation be counterproductive?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 199-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-84, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Neumark, David & Tinsley, P A & Tosini, Suzanne, 1991. " After-Hours Stock Prices and Post-Crash Hangovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 159-78, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Takatoshi Ito & Wen-Ling Lin, 1993. "Price Volatility and Volume Spillovers between the Tokyo and New York Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 4592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Michael Melvin & Bettina Peiers, 1998. "Twice a day or continuously? Observation frequency and inference on foreign exchange volatility persistence," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 44-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Yochanan Shachmurove, 2001. "Dynamic Co-movements of Stock Indices: The Emerging Middle Eastern and the United States Markets," Penn CARESS Working Papers ddffc4204cf90a8523fb64134, Penn Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Terry Boulter, 2000. "Asymmetric Information Arrival and the Short-Run Dynamics of Australian Dollar Volatility: a Mixture of Distributions Approach," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 073, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  6. Joseph Friedman & Yochanan Shachmurove, . ""Using Vector Autoregression Models to Analyze the Behavior of the European Community Stock Markets''," CARESS Working Papres 97-04, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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