Peso Problems, Bubbles, and Risk in the Empirical Assessment of Exchange-Rate Behavior
AbstractOne of the most puzzling aspects of the post-1973 floating exchange rate system has been the apparently inefficient predictive performance of forward exchange rates. This paper explores some aspects of each of three leading explanations of forward-rate behavior. The paper first develops a simple rational-expectations model of the "peso problem" that generates some key empirical regularities of the foreign exchange market: seemingly predictable and conditionally heteroskedastic forward forecast errors, along with possible directional misprediction by the forward premium. The implications of bubbles for tests of forward-rate predictive efficiency are discussed next. It is argued that the existence of bubbles is extremely difficult (if not impossible) to establish empirically. Even though some types of bubble would distort standard tests on the relation between spot and forward exchange rates, it seems unlikely that there bubbles have been an important factor. Finally, the paper examines foreign-exchange asset pricing under risk aversion and suggests that a convincing account of forward-rate behavior should also help explain the results found in testing other asset-pricing theories, such as the expectations theory of the interest-rate term structure.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2203.
Date of creation: Mar 1989
Date of revision:
Note: ITI IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Ito, Takatoshi, 1989.
"On the consistency of short-run and long-run exchange rate expectations,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 487-510, December.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Takatoshi Ito, 1990. "On the Consistency of Short-run and Long-run Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Takatoshi Ito & Robert F. Engle & Wen-Ling Lin, 1992.
"Where Does the Meteor Shower Come From? The Role of Stochastic Policy Coordination,"
NBER Working Papers
3504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ito, Takatoshi & Engle, Robert F. & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1992. "Where does the meteor shower come from? : The role of stochastic policy coordination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 221-240, May.
- Michael Kumhof & Stijn van Nieuwerburgh, 2007.
"Monetary Policy in an Equilibrium Portfolio Balance Model,"
IMF Working Papers
07/72, International Monetary Fund.
- Stijn van Nieuwerburgh & Michael Kumhof, 2005. "Monetary Policy in an Equilibrium Portfolio Balance Model," 2005 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Phornchanok Cumperayot, 2003. "Dusting off the Perception of Risk and Returns in FOREX Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 904, CESifo Group Munich.
- Rui Albuquerque, 2004. "The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Model of Imperfect Information: Theory and Evidence," International Finance 0405007, EconWPA.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.