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The forward premium puzzle in a model of imperfect information

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  • Albuquerque, Rui

Abstract

This paper studies the forward premium puzzle in a model with imperfect information. The model predicts fixed effects and conditional heteroskedasticity in the forward premium regression and provides a rationale for the evidence in Mayfield and Murphy [Mayfield, E.S., Murphy, R.G. 1992. Interest rate parity and the exchange risk premium, Economics Letters 40, 319-324].

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 99 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 461-464

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:99:y:2008:i:3:p:461-464

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mayfield, E. Scott & Murphy, Robert G., 1992. "Interest rate parity and the exchange risk premium Evidence from panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 319-324, November.
  3. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1993. "Profits, risk, and uncertainty in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 259-286, November.
  5. Robert J. Hodrick, 1987. "Risk, Uncertainty and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  7. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  8. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," NBER Working Papers 3861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Modeling money," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  12. Bachman, Daniel, 1992. "The effect of political risk on the forward exchange bias: the case of elections," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 208-219, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Jylhä, Petri & Suominen, Matti, 2011. "Speculative capital and currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 60-75, January.

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