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Do Bulls and Bears Move Acoross Borders: International Transimission of Stock Returns and Volatility as the World Turns

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  • Wen-Ling Lin
  • Robert F. Engle
  • Takatoshi Ito

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically how returns and volatilities correlated between Tokyo and New York stock indices (Nikkei 225 and s&p500). First, intradaily data are used, so that daytime and overnight returns are defined for both markets. Tokyo daytime hours overlap with New York overnight hours, while New York daytime hours overlap with Tokyo overnight hours. We find that in general Tokyo (New York) daytime returns are significantly correlated with New York (Tokyo) overnight returns. This suggests that information revealed during the trading hours of one market has a global impact on the returns of the other market. One exception is that after the crash, the Tokyo overnight returns are not significantly affected by New York daytime returns. A signal extraction model with GARCH processes, with intradaily data, is proposed to determine a global factor from daytime returns. This is problem of investors for pricing the opening price of a domestic market conditional on the foreign daytime returns. In addition, lagged returns and volatilities are investigated. Except for a lagged return spillover from New York to Tokyo for the period after the crash, there are no significant lagged spillovers in returns and volatilities are detected.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number a253.

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Date of creation: Feb 1992
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Handle: RePEc:hit:hituec:a253

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  1. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
  2. Barclay, Michael J & Litzenberger, Robert H & Warner, Jerold B, 1990. "Private Information, Trading Volume, and Stock-Return Variances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 233-53.
  3. Pagan, Adrian, 1980. "Some identification and estimation results for regression models with stochastically varying coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-363, August.
  4. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  5. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
  6. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Sentana, Enrique, 1992. "Unobserved component time series models with Arch disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 129-157.
  7. David Neumark & P.A. Tinsley & Suzanne Tosini, 1988. "After-hours stock prices and post-crash hangovers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
  9. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  10. Solnik, B H, 1974. "The International Pricing of Risk: An Empirical Investigation of the World Capital Market Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 365-78, May.
  11. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  12. Stoll, Hans R & Whaley, Robert E, 1990. "Stock Market Structure and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 37-71.
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Cited by:
  1. Becker, Kent G. & Finnerty, Joseph E. & Friedman, Joseph, 1995. "Economic news and equity market linkages between the U.S. and U.K," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1191-1210, October.
  2. Erik Hupperets & Bert Menkveld, 2000. "Intraday Analysis of Market Integration: Dutch Blue Chips traded in Amsterdam and New York," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-018/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Craig, Alastair & Dravid, Ajay & Richardson, Matthew, 1995. "Market efficiency around the clock Some supporting evidence using foreign-based derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 161-180.
  4. Chan, K. C. & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, ReneM., 1992. "Global financial markets and the risk premium on U.S. equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 137-167, October.
  5. Erik Hupperets & Bert Menkveld, 2000. "Intraday Analysis of Market Integration: Dutch Blue Chips traded in Amsterdam and New York," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-018/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
  7. Eric Zitzewitz, 2003. "Who Cares About Shareholders? Arbitrage-Proofing Mutual Funds," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 245-280, October.
  8. Geoffrey Booth, G. & Chowdhury, Mustafa & Martikainen, Teppo, 1996. "Common volatility in major stock index futures markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 623-630, December.

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