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Do Bulls and Bears Move Across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility as the World Turns

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, W.L.
  • Engle, R.F.
  • Ito, T.

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically how returns and volatilities of stock indices are correlated between Tokyo and New York. Intradaily data are used, so that daytime and overnight returns are defined for both markets. Tokyo daytime hours overlap with New York overnight hours, while New York daytime hours overlap with Tokyo overnight hours. We find that in general Tokyo (Mew York) daytime returns are significantly correlated with New York (Tokyo) overnight returns. This suggests that information revealed during the trading hours of one market has a global impact on the returns of the other market. One exception is that after the October 1987 Crash, the Tokyo overnight returns were not significantly affected by New York daytime returns. We propose and estimate a signal extraction model with GARCH processes to determine the global factor from daytime returns. This is the problem of setting the opening price of a domestic market conditional on the foreign daytime returns. We also investigate lagged return and volatility spillovers. Except for a lagged return spillover from New York to Tokyo for the period after the Crash, there are no significant lagged spillovers in returns or in volatilities.
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Suggested Citation

  • Lin, W.L. & Engle, R.F. & Ito, T., 1991. "Do Bulls and Bears Move Across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility as the World Turns," Working papers 9121, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    • Handle: RePEc:att:wimass:9121
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    Cited by:

    1. Baekin Cha & Yan-leung Cheung, 1998. "The Impact of the U.S. and the Japanese Equity Markets on the Emerging Asia-Pacific Equity Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 5(3), pages 191-209, November.
    2. Geoffrey Booth, G. & Chowdhury, Mustafa & Martikainen, Teppo, 1996. "Common volatility in major stock index futures markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 623-630, December.
    3. Chan, K. C. & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, ReneM., 1992. "Global financial markets and the risk premium on U.S. equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 137-167, October.
    4. Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
    5. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    6. Hupperets, Erik C. J. & Menkveld, Albert J., 2002. "Intraday analysis of market integration: Dutch blue chips traded in Amsterdam and New York," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 57-82, January.
    7. Becker, Kent G. & Finnerty, Joseph E. & Friedman, Joseph, 1995. "Economic news and equity market linkages between the U.S. and U.K," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1191-1210, October.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    9. Craig, Alastair & Dravid, Ajay & Richardson, Matthew, 1995. "Market efficiency around the clock Some supporting evidence using foreign-based derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 161-180.
    10. Eric Zitzewitz, 2003. "Who Cares About Shareholders? Arbitrage-Proofing Mutual Funds," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 245-280, October.

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