Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection

Contents:

Author Info

  • Eric Hillebrand

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Gunther Schnabl

    (Tuebingen University)

Abstract

We study the impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on the volatility of the yen/dollar exchange rate since the early 1990s based on a GARCH framework. Using daily intervention data provided by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, we show that the success of interventions varies over time. Measured on the total sample between 1991 and 2003 the estimation results for the impact of foreign exchange intervention on the yen/dollar exchange rate volatility are inconclusive. Sub-dividing the sample into yearly sub-periods and into intervention clusters suggests a structural break. From 1991 up to the late 1990s Japanese foreign exchange intervention seems to have increased the volatility of the yen/dollar exchange rate. In contrast in the new millennium, Japa- nese foreign exchange intervention is associated with less exchange rate volatility. Non-arbitrary segmentation by change point detection leads to similar results. The evidence in favour of recent successful Japanese foreign exchange intervention is line with theoretical evidence which implies successful intervention is the case of un-sterilized intervention.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0410/0410008.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0410008.

as in new window
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 27 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0410008

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 36. Updated version.
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Japan; Foreign Exchange Intervention; Exchange Rate Volatility; GARCH; Change Point Detection; Liquidity Trap;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  2. Svensson, Lars, 2000. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Seminar Papers 687, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  3. Wouter J. Den Haan & Andrew T. Levin, 1996. "A Practitioner's Guide to Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Rishi Goyal & Ronald McKinnon, 2003. "Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 339-363, 03.
  5. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  6. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 16.
  7. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
  8. Michel Beine & Ariane Szafarz, 2003. "The design of effective Central Bank interventions: the yen/dollar case," Working Papers CEB 03-008.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001. "Detecting Multiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 0202, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 7677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  12. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "On the effects of sterilized intervention : An analysis of weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-150, September.
  13. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2003. "Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in a Model with Noise Traders," Working Papers 162003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  14. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
  15. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading And Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569, May.
  16. Ramana Ramaswamy & Hossein Samiei, 2000. "The Yen-Dollar Rate," IMF Working Papers 00/95, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Anna J. Schwartz, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 331-360, 08.
  19. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2003. "Is sterilised foreign exchange intervention effective after all? an event study approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 390-411, 04.
  20. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
  21. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  22. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2004. "The accuracy of press reports regarding the foreign exchange interventions of the Bank of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 25-36, February.
  24. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
  25. Jurgen A. Doornik and Marius Ooms, 2001. "Multimodality and the GARCH Likelihood," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 76, Society for Computational Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "International Capital Markets, Macroeconomic Stability, and Exchange Rate Stabilization in the CIS and East Asia," International Finance 0410009, EconWPA, revised 01 Mar 2005.
  2. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Market Interventions and the $-¥ Exchange Rate in the Long-Run," Ruhr Economic Papers 0428, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  3. Takatoshi Ito & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2004. "What Prompts Japan to Intervene in the Forex Market? A New Approach to a Reaction Function," NBER Working Papers 10456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Humala, Alberto & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility in Peru," Working Papers 2009-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  5. Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "Central bank authorities’ beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2006-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Schnabl, Gunther, 2005. "International Capital Markets and Informal Dollar Standards in the CIS and East Asia," HWWA Discussion Papers 326, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  7. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia. Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance 0406007, EconWPA, revised 07 Jul 2004.
  8. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2004. "On the determinants of "small" and "large" foreign exchange market interventions: The case of the Japanese interventions in the 1990s," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 231-243.
  9. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718.
  10. Schnabl, Gunther & Danne, Christian, 2005. "The Changing Role of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate for Japanese Monetary Policy," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 290, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  11. Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "Central bank intervention, threshold effects and asymmetric volatility: Evidence from the Japanese yen-US dollar foreign exchange market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 628-642, July.
  12. Kim, Suk-Joong, 2007. "Intraday evidence of efficacy of 1991-2004 Yen intervention by the Bank of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 341-360, October.
  13. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-39.
  14. Morel, Christophe & Teiletche, Jérôme, 2008. "Do interventions in foreign exchange markets modify investors' expectations? The experience of Japan between 1992 and 2004," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/12956, Paris Dauphine University.
  15. Morel, Christophe & Teïletche, Jérôme, 2008. "Do interventions in foreign exchange markets modify investors' expectations? The experience of Japan between 1992 and 2004," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-231, March.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0410008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.