Investment Under Alternative Return Assumptions: Comparing Random Walks and Mean Reversion
AbstractMany recent theoretical papers have come under attack for modeling prices as Geometric Brownian Motion. This process can diverge over time, implying that firms facing this price process can earn infinite profits. We explore the significance of this attack and contrast investment under Geometric Brownian Motion with investment assuming mean reversion. While analytically more complex, mean reversion in many cases is a more plausible assumption, allowing for supply responses to increasing prices. We show that cumulative investment is generally unaffected by the use of a mean reversion process rather than Geometric Brownian Motion and provide an explanation for this result.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0175.
Date of creation: Mar 1995
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.19, 1995, pp.1471-1488.
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Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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Other versions of this item:
- Metcalf, Gilbert E. & Hassett, Kevin A., 1995. "Investment under alternative return assumptions Comparing random walks and mean reversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1471-1488, November.
- C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-IFN-1998-08-21 (International Finance)
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