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Testing for Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Financial Time Series

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Author Info

  • Andreu Sansó

    ()

  • Vicent Aragó
  • Josep Lluís Carrion

Abstract

Inclan and Tiao (1994) proposed a test for the detection of changes of the unconditional variance which has been used in financial time series analysis. In this article we show some serious drawbacks for using this test with this type of data. Specifically, it su.ers important size distortions for leptokurtic and platykurtic innovations. Moreover, the size distortions are more extreme for heteroskedastic conditional variance processes. These results invalidate in practice the use of the test for financial time series. To overcome these problems we propose new tests that explicitly consider the fourth moment properties of the disturbances and the conditional heteroskedasticity. Monte Carlo experiments show the good performance of these tests. The application of the new tests to the same series in Aggarwal, Inclan and Leal (1999) reveal that the changes in variance they detect are spurious.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada in its series DEA Working Papers with number 5.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ubi:deawps:5

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Related research

Keywords: ICSS; Changes in Variance; Kurtosis; ARCH; IGARCH.;

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References

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  2. repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
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  4. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001. "Detecting Mutiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-65, CIRANO.
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  8. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Stationarity and the Existence of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes," ISER Discussion Paper 0535, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  9. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1993. " ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 305-66, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kamel malik Bensafta, 2010. "Non-stationary Variance and Volatility Causality," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2920-2935.
  2. Deng, Ai & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "The Limit Distribution Of The Cusum Of Squares Test Under General Mixing Conditions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(03), pages 809-822, June.
  3. Morales, Lucía & Gassie, Esmeralda, 2011. "Structural breaks and financial volatility: Lessons from BRIC countries," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 13, Leib­niz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
  4. Gordon J. Ross, 2012. "Modeling Financial Volatility in the Presence of Abrupt Changes," Papers 1212.6016, arXiv.org.
  5. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2005. "The Limit Distribution of the CUSUM of Square Test Under Genreal MIxing Conditions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-046, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  6. Gregory James & Michail Karoglou, 2009. "Financial Liberalisation and Stock Market Volatility: The Case of Indonesia," Discussion Paper Series 2009_11, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2009.

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