A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics
AbstractThis paper relaxes the standard I(0) and I(1) assumptions typically stated in the monetary VAR literature by considering a richer framework that encompasses the previous two processes as well as other fractionally integrated possibilities. First, a timevarying multivariate spectrum is estimated for post WWII US data. Then, a structural fractionally integrated VAR (VARFIMA) is fitted to each of the resulting time dependent spectra. In this way, both the coefficients of the VAR and the innovation variances are allowed to evolve freely. The model is employed to analyze inflation persistence and to evaluate the stance of US monetary policy. Our findings indicate a strong decline in the innovation variances during the great disinflation, consistent with the view that the good performance of the economy during the 80â€™s and 90â€™s is in part a tale of good luck. However, we also find evidence of a decline in inflation persistence together with a stronger monetary response to inflation during the same period. This last result suggests that the Fed may still play a role in accounting for the observed differences in the US inflation history. Finally, we conclude that previous evidence against drifting coefficients could be an artifact of parameter restriction towards the stationary region. Keywords: monetary policy, inflation persistence, fractional integration, timevarying coefficients, VARFIMA. JEL Classification: E52, C32
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2072/211795.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Política monetària; Anàlisi de sèries temporals; Inflació; 338 - Situació econòmica. Política econòmica. Gestió; control i planificació de l'economia. Producció. Serveis. Turisme. Preus;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-06-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-06-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MON-2013-06-16 (Monetary Economics)
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